Drug Trafficking Emerging as Top National Security Threat to Tajikistan

Tajik leaders say the country's war against drug traffickers is enjoying significant success. Nevertheless, the volume of narcotics coming out of neighboring Afghanistan is such that Tajik drug control officers are being overwhelmed. Some local observers suggest the trafficking problem is eclipsing Islamic radical activity as Tajikistan's top security threat.

News on drug-related arrests seem to be a daily feature in Tajik and Russian media. On May 7, for example, the Itar-Tass news agency reported that Russian border troops detained smugglers in southern Tajikistan carrying 16 kilograms of heroin, along with automatic weapons. Another report the same day said a Tajik court sentenced two Tajik army servicemen to 18-year jail terms for trafficking offenses.

In an April 26 speech, President Imomali Rahmonov said Tajikistan ranked fourth in the world in drug seizures, intercepting roughly three tons of narcotics with an estimated street value of $1.4 billion since the start of 2003. Russian border guards confiscated over 200 kilograms (about 440 pounds) of heroin during the first week of May alone, Itar-Tass added. In 2002, interdiction efforts netted more than seven tons of drugs, United Nations statistics show.

Rahmonov pointed out that Tajikistan was responsible for 85 percent of all the drug seizures in Central Asia, adding that "our special services are doing quite a good job." At the same time, Rahmonov admitted that the trafficking issue remained a "headache" for Tajikistan and other countries, and indicated that the problem was increasing in severity. According to international agency estimates, even in the best-case scenario, authorities are successful in interdicting only up to 10 percent of the total amount of drugs being smuggled.

Afghanistan's revival as the world's leading source of opiates [for background see the Eurasia Insight archives] comes at a critical point for Tajik development efforts. Tajikistan over the last six years has found a measure of social stability following a devastating civil war. Yet the country's economy continues to flounder.

According to an April report issued by the Brussels-based International Crisis Group (ICG), Tajikistan ranks among the 20 poorest countries in the world, "threatening to become one of the very few countries where children will lag behind their parents in education." The agricultural sector, the report said, does not produce enough food to meet the population's needs, and many Tajiks subsist on about $7 per month in income. Poverty is exacerbated by the country's demographics, as over 70 percent of the country's approximately 6.3 million population is under the age of 30. With one of the highest growth rates in Central Asia, the population is projected to exceed 7 million by 2015.

Meanwhile, the resources available to the government are shrinking. Projected revenues in 2003 are a mere $212 million, about one-tenth the amount of the 1990 state budget. Under any circumstances, officials face daunting challenges in promoting economic growth in Tajikistan. The added burdens imposed by drug trafficking may render an already difficult task impossible.

The ICG report warned that rising narcotics trafficking "undermines the political will for economic reform and corrupts government institutions." The drug trade is also luring large numbers of impoverished Tajiks into criminal activity, while fostering health-related problems – in particular, facilitating the spread of HIV/AIDS.

"The drug trade impedes economic growth because this illegal income is rarely transformed into productive capital investments which are necessary for long-term and sustained economic expansion," the ICG report stated.

At present, the drug trafficking problem is threatening to close off a vital income source for Tajiks – migrant labor. CIS states are increasingly wary of welcoming Tajik "guest workers" because of trafficking-related concerns. The International Organization for Migration has estimated that 800,000 Tajiks have become "guest workers," most of them in Russia and Kazakhstan. According to one estimate, remittances from migrant laborers in 2002 totaled $600 million, or about three times the state budget. However, labor migration opportunities for Tajiks may contract as the flow of drugs out of Afghanistan continues to rise.

During a late April visit to Dushanbe, Russian President Vladimir Putin cited trafficking as a reason behind Russia's crackdown on illegal migrants from Tajikistan. "Russia is badly affected by illegal drug trafficking, and this is the main source of worry as regards the illegal migration of Tajik citizens into Russia," Putin said. Some Tajik observers also say the Russian crackdown was designed to discourage Dushanbe from strengthening its ties to the United States. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archives].

In recent years, Tajik authorities have been preoccupied with efforts to contain Islamic radicals. In 1999 and 2000, militants from the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan utilized Tajik territory to launch raids into neighboring countries. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archives]. Of late, officials have expressed concern about the activity of a clandestine radical group, Hizb-ut-Tahrir. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archives]. The drug trafficking problem is rivaling, if not overtaking radical Islamic activity as the top national security priority.

"Drugs need to be approached as a development problem as much as a security issue, with a new focus on employment and alternative agricultural and business opportunities at all levels," the ICG report urged.