Armenia: Administration, Opposition Take Tentative Steps toward Opening Dialogue

They may still hate each other, but political necessity is pressuring two arch foes in Armenian politics, President Serzh Sarkisian and opposition leader Levon Ter-Petrosian, to start talking to each other. Even so, significant obstacles stand in the way of the start of a substantive political dialogue.

The March 1 violence in Yerevan created a political chasm dividing the opposition and government, with each side blaming the other for the loss of life. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Since then, the international community has pressured the Sarkisian administration to open a dialogue with Ter-Petrosian. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. More recently, Armenian politicians representing varying shades of the political spectrum have started pressing for the two to negotiate a political truce.

An April 17 resolution adopted by the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) warned that Armenia faced expulsion from the organization if it did not take immediate action to heal the rifts created by the March 1 violence. Other organizations have also threatened to punish Yerevan, including the Millennium Challenge Corporation, which has cautioned that millions of dollars in assistance could be lost if Sarkisian's administration does not promote national reconciliation. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Meanwhile, inside the country, growing concern about Azerbaijan's intentions regarding the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process has played a significant role in generating pressure for political unity in Yerevan. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

"It is necessary that these two major figures should meet each other face-to-face," Raffi Hovannisian, the leader of the Heritage Party stated during an April 30 news conference. A few days earlier, Hovannisian announced that his attempt to arrange a meeting between Sarkisian and Ter-Petrosian had failed.

On May 2, Ter-Petrosian indicated that he was ready to talk to Sarkisian, but the offer was conditioned on the government's compliance with the April 17 PACE resolution. "We are ready to begin a dialogue with the regime. Such a dialogue, however, cannot be started with the purpose of bringing one of the sides to its knees," Ter-Petrosian said.

The central demand of the PACE resolution is the release of all opposition activists in government custody. According to the data published by the Prosecutor-General's Office, there are 58 individuals in custody in connection with the March 1 events. Officials insist, however, that the detainees are not political prisoners. Meanwhile, the Ter-Petrosian camp fixes the number of detainees at 92, and emphasizes that many of those in custody are high-level opposition politicians.

Sarkisian aides have indicated that the president is ready to talk. At the same time, the administration has made no move to release jailed opposition leaders. Some opposition leaders contend that arrests of Ter-Petrosian supporters have been continuing in the weeks since PACE issued its resolution. Administration officials brush off criticism, insisting the issue is not political, but a matter of law enforcement.

"If people broke law they must be punished within the framework of law. Law must be equal for all. We have no political prisoners. One shouldn't make statements in advance, everything will be cleared up as a result of the investigation," MP and spokesman for the governing Republican Party of Armenia (RPA) Eduard Sharmazanov told EurasiaNet.

Sharmazanov hinted that the Ter-Petrosian camp was behaving in a politically irresponsible way, putting personal interests above those of the nation. "There should be dialogue in democratic countries, but obscenities and political nihilism are not part of that," he said. He also accused Ter-Petrosian of trying to bully the government, saying; "To go for a dialogue with preconditions is no longer dialogue, but an ultimatum."

Not surprisingly, pro-government politicians are backing talks without preconditions, while opposition leaders insist that the PACE conditions be met. Naira Zohrabian, an MP from the Prosperous Armenia Party, suggested that Ter-Petrosian, in embracing the PACE resolution, was trying to create a justifiable reason for avoiding talks. "Setting forth preconditions is simply an excuse to somehow steer clear of dialogue," Zohrabian said.

Suren Sureniants, a leader of the opposition Hanrapetutyun Party, insisted that a dialogue could produce results only if opposition activists could trust administration officials. The only way to build such trust, he indicated, would be for the government to release jailed opposition figures. Sureniants himself spent 52 days in prison for his role in the organization of anti-government rallies following Armenia's contentious presidential election in February. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. "Speaking figuratively, a dialogue cannot take place between the prosecutor and the accused," Sureniants said.

Richard Giragosian, an independent analyst based in Washington, DC, suggested that the emphasis on "political dialogue" was missing the main point of Armenia's domestic crisis.

"What is needed is a