EurasiaNet Eurasia Insight - Speculation Mounts on Aliyev’s Political Future in Azerbaijan

EURASIA INSIGHT

SPECULATION MOUNTS ON ALIYEV’S POLITICAL FUTURE IN AZERBAIJAN
5/09/03

As Heidar Aliyev continued to receive treatment May 9 at a Turkish military hospital, speculation mounted in Baku over whether the ailing Azerbaijani president will ever recover sufficiently to handle his executive responsibilities. Government officials maintain that Aliyev remains in charge, but opposition politicians are already anticipating a transition period.

Accurate information concerning Aliyev’s condition at Gulhane hospital in Ankara remains elusive. Official sources insist the president is not seriously ill, while opposition media has suggested that Aliyev’s condition is terminal. The Turan news agency reported May 8 that Aliyev’s health had improved and that he was moved out of intensive care, adding that he remained in isolation with access limited to only a few key aides and medical personnel. The news agency said Aliyev continues to suffer from serious cardiovascular, kidney and liver ailments.

Over the past few days, authorities have stressed the president remains at the helm of government. Defense Minister Safar Abiyev told ANS television that he was in daily contact with Aliyev, saying; "There is no problem." That message was reinforced in an interview with Ilham Aliyev, the president’s son and potential successor, broadcast May 8 on state television. "He is in contact with relevant ministers and is issuing instructions," Ilham claimed. "He is in a normal working regime. …Telephone contact is maintained constantly."

Opposition media scoff at such official assertions. Many Azeris also treat government reports with skepticism, as Baku is rife with rumors of Aliyev’s death, residents say. A commentary in the Yeni Musavat daily -- which recently had its editorial office ransacked and has been the target of repeated verbal assaults by Aliyev aides [for additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive] – warned that authorities may be attempting to engineer an unconstitutional transfer of power.

"Observing the behavior of these people [in Aliyev’s inner circle] … they have been obviously trying to do their utmost to take control of the situation," the May 8 commentary said. "The progressive section of society and national forces need to be extremely vigilant. … Azerbaijan, the state and its people, are being deceived."

Meanwhile, some opposition politicians are girding for a rough-and-tumble transition process. Former parliament speaker Rasul Guliyev, who now lives in exile in the United States, predicted that an early presidential election was "inevitable," according to a May 7 report by the MPA news agency. Guliyev announced that he intends to return to Azerbaijan and participate in the election. Under current plans, a regular presidential election is expected this autumn.

Authorities allege that Guliyev engaged in corrupt practices while in office, and he faces possible arrest if he returns to Baku. Early in May, Guliyev was briefly detained in Amsterdam before Dutch authorities determined that the Azerbaijani arrest warrant, issued through Interpol, lacked merit and released him. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Azerbaijan’s constitutional process for a transfer of power mandates that the prime minister assumes interim presidential authority in the event of the chief executive’s incapacitation or death in office. Few local observers, however, believe that the country’s current prime minister, Artur Rasizade, would become interim president if Aliyev withdrew from the political stage. Most view Ilham as the likely successor – at least initially. Some wonder whether Ilham has the political skills to successfully navigate what would promise to be a difficult transition period.

Rasizade has been in the United States for almost two weeks, reportedly to undergo an eye operation. Azerbaijani diplomats in Washington announced that Rasizade would return to Baku on or about May 9, but the prime minister’s departure for home could not be confirmed.

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