From the fall of the Soviet Union to the rise of the current antiterrorist coalition, Moscow has long claimed to prioritize cooperation within other post-Soviet treaties. However, a flurry of diplomatic activities in the Russian capital next week may indicate that the Kremlin is seeking to reassert itself as a "big brother" to some former Soviet states.
In an apparent effort to boost lethargic security treaties, foreign and defense ministers of the Collective Security Treaty, or DKB, will meet in Moscow on May 13, a day ahead of a summit to mark the DKB's 10th anniversary. Valery Nikolayenko, the Russian general who heads the DKB, told reporters the meeting would consider the treaty's history and mull new challenges.
The Moscow talks will also make Russian President Vladimir Putin the DKB's chairman and may produce a sort of chief of staff for the association. And they will highlight Russia's desire to emerge as a linchpin of regional security.
The elevation of the DKB's military profile is no coincidence. The group staged "anti-terror" exercises in Kyrgyzstan in April and will host new ones in Russia's Nizhny Novgorod region, under the command of Russian general Alexey Merkuriyev, from May 12 to 14. These will, among other things, showcase Russian military power: some 1,000 soldiers, including a tank battalion, artillery and air defense units, 20 helicopters and six fighter jets are on the schedule.
In April, air force commanders of countries inside and outside the DKB Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Ukraine received joint training. According to the office of the DKB general secretary, the exercises seek to rehearse "counter-attacks against armed formations invading the territory of one DKB member state and restoration of the existing border."
The exercises also imply Russian interest in strengthening security around its edges. The Kremlin press service says the summit will tackle the creation of a joint military command and control center, as well as "systems of regional security on the East European, Caucasus and Central Asian regions," including modernization of armaments and spare parts supplies. Because of geography and scope, Russia would have to dominate any such system.
The Collective Security Treaty, even if all smaller countries defer to Russia utterly, nonetheless faces limits. It includes Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Belarus and Armenia, all of which became parties in October 2000. The countries signed the pact to guarantee mutual support in the face of outside aggression and in antiterrorist operations.
Military maneuvers make for a logical activity under the treaty. But after the United States set up military bases in Central Asia in the fall of 2001, these maneuvers may take on a different tone. In March, Nikolayenko conceded that no multilateral DKB consultations preceded the Americans' arrival. At the same time, he said that the DKB viewed itself as an "integral part of European and Asian security" and as harmonious with China's and India's interests. Via the summit, Russia may seek to show that it can affix neighbors' agenda to its own, thus commanding more international attention.
It will be a difficult claim to stake. On May 7, Kyrgyz President Askar Akayev, speaking to his Parliament, praised the DKB but gave the United States and China their due as "strategic partners." And Uzbekistan, which became an important American ally during attacks on the Taliban, has no role in the DKB.
More generally, a May 9 bomb attack in Kaspiisk, Dagestan that killed 41 people may mar the conference. Dagestan borders the rebellious republic of Chechnya; the bomb blew up a bus and killed a military band that was riding to festivities marking the defeat of the Nazis. Putin lashed out after the attack, calling the bombers "scum" and declaring, "we have the right to regard them as Nazis." The shocking comparison and event both indicate that Russia cannot yet guarantee security within its own borders, let alone steer multilateral efforts.
If military treaties fail to affirm Russian influence in the region, a simultaneous Moscow conference of the Eurasian Economic Community (EEC) may seek to align other countries by guiding their fiscal behavior. EEC secretary general Grigory Rapota, who once ran Russia's arms-exporting business, told reporters on May 8 that the EEC intends to unify the customs, energy, and financial systems of Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Rapota declared that these five countries had achieved "mutual convertibility of the national currencies."
Whatever real effect this "convertibility" has on trade or fiscal policy, though, the EEC's operations remain unclear. The summit agenda involves the creation of an arbitration court and inter-Parliament council; it also will, the Kremlin says, consider coordinating member states' efforts to join the World Trade Organization.
In this area, too, Russia faces few easy victories. Russia hopes to join the WTO in 2003, a target date that demands banking, judicial, and fiscal reforms. These reforms could cost an untold number of jobs leftists estimate 20 million and there are few economic dividends for Russia in closer ties with its mainly impoverished former Soviet partners, which owe Russia billions of dollars for oil and gas supplies.
Nigmatzhan Isingarin, who represents Kazakhstan as the EEC's deputy chairman, told reporters on May 8 that EEC planners should not reach beyond their grasp. Isingarin invoked the Commonwealth of Independent States, which has authorized thousands of declarations and other documents but has not managed to create a free trade zone in 11 years, as a source of "lessons" to those who would seek to quickly unify financial systems across state borders.
The warning may resonate in the military conference as well. Russia may still consider itself a leading power among post-Soviet states, and may seek to reestablish the DKB as a conduit for its power. But analysts say that an expanding American presence in Central Asia and China's growing economic and strategic clout in the east call Russia's traditional role into question. The high-profile gatherings due in Moscow on May 13 look to some experts like a diplomatic counter-offensive. But the world has changed since the DKB began. Russia will have to work hard and patiently to make the celebratory summit produce something more substantial than yet another serving of official pledges.
Editor's note:
Sergei Blagov is a Moscow-based specialist in CIS political affairs.
