EurasiaNet Eurasia Insight - Saakashvili's First 100 Days: Bloom Still on Reforms, But Critics Voice Concern

EURASIA INSIGHT

SAAKASHVILI’S FIRST 100 DAYS: BLOOM STILL ON REFORMS, BUT CRITICS VOICE CONCERN
Daan van der Schriek 5/10/04

One hundred days into Mikhail Saakashvili’s presidency, even while popular support for the reform leader’s Rose Revolution remains unchanged, concerns are growing that Georgia’s aggressive anti-corruption campaign has undermined respect of human rights and rule of law. In the push to strengthen Georgian statehood, critics say, dissent has been stifled and civil society weakened. Some analysts, however, counter that any missteps in Saakashvili’s rule are not a sign of growing authoritarianism, but, rather, of a lack of experience in governance.

The criticism comes on the heels of a crucial victory for the 36-year-old president. The May 5 resignation of Ajarian strongman Aslan Abashidze has advanced Saakashvili’s promises both to restore Georgia’s territorial integrity and to regain control of much-needed tax funds from the strategic region of Ajaria. [For background see the EurasiaNet Insight archive].

Already, a momentum for change has begun to build. The government’s firm stance against official corruption and tax evasion has brought down many notorious members of Shevardnadze’s old guard and stimulated fresh international interest in aid and investment. [For background see the EurasiaNet Insight archive]. With Saakashvili’s National Movement party holding the overwhelming majority of seats in parliament, few political challenges to this campaign are expected. [For background see the EurasiaNet Insight archive]. A new constitution reinforces Saakashvili’s hold still further: the president may dismiss parliament for any action deemed unconstitutional or after three successive failures to pass the state budget.

After years of seeing Georgia teeter on the brink of economic and political collapse, many Georgians believe the show of presidential force is essential to reform.

"I like it when he throws these corrupt people in jail," said 28-year-old Irma. Her reaction is common: an April 19 poll conducted by Georgian Opinion Research Business International put the president’s approval rating at 86 percent.

But the president’s popularity contains hidden pitfalls, commented Giorgi Sepashvili, editor-in-chief of Civil Georgia, a Tbilisi-based news service run by the United Nations Association.

"Since Saakashvili knows that arresting corrupt people is popular with voters, there’s a large incentive to do it, to maintain support for his reforms," Sepashvili said. "But when his government sees that popularity, there’s a risk that that will encourage them to think that they don’t need to bother with paying attention to the law. They think the public will not care."

Human Rights Watch charged in February that the government’s anti-corruption crusade used "harsh methods that appear effective and popular." The organization cautioned that continuing to employ these measures would "violate the government’s human rights obligations."

Local human rights organizations have echoed that concern. According to one prominent human rights defender, Saakashvili’s pursuit of suspected criminals in both government and business circles has led to an atmosphere in which arrests are seen as a product of presidential whim. [For background see the EurasiaNet Insight archive].

"The president and leading members of the government say so-and-so is a criminal when a criminal suit hasn’t even been filed yet, when the person mentioned hasn’t even been arrested yet," Nana Kakabadze, chairwoman of the organization Former Political Prisoners for Human Rights, said in an interview with EurasiaNet. "If the person’s neighbors hear the president speaking like this on television, they start to wonder who will be next. So long as there’s no concrete evidence, so long as the case hasn’t gone to trial, no one has the right, not even the president, to speak out in such a way, to cast guilt on people."

The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) says that it has received "a noticeable increase" in complaints about human rights violations since Saakashvili was inaugurated as president on January 25.

Critics have questioned the grounds for many of these prosecutions: Although some of those accused of tax evasion have been released from jail after paying back taxes, the charges against them have remained outstanding. Others hint that political interests motivate the investigations. The arrest of former President Shevardnadze’s son-in-law Gia Jokhtaberidze has been cited by some as one such possible example. Tax evasion charges against Jokhtaberidze were dropped on April 26, after a payment of $15.5 million was made to the Georgian treasury. [For background see the EurasiaNet Insight archive].

Reports of media harassment have also gathered pace. The prosecution of The Omega Group, [For background see the EurasiaNet Insight archive] a cigarette retailer registered in Ajaria whose media outlets have been critical of Saakashvili’s rule, is one of the more high-profile examples cited by media activists. The International Press Institute, based in Vienna, issued a statement in February that expressed "growing concern" about the status of freedom of the press in Georgia.

But Marc Behrendt, head of the OSCE’s Human Dimension program, cautions that the problem lies not so much with an attempt by the government to control the press, as with journalists’ own reluctance to criticize the government.

"Across the country, there is a sense that if [the reform process] doesn’t work now, it’s never going to work, that this is Georgia’s last chance. People are almost desperate for the new government to be successful," Behrendt said. "There’s a concept that unanimity is seen as a strength, that there’s a conflict between being able to be a journalist and being able to be a patriot."

That concept of strength in unity has already begun to take a toll on Georgia’s civil society, said Behrendt. As members of non-governmental organizations find jobs in government ministries, he said, the voice of civil society has grown weaker.

"These people don’t know the difference between government and civil society at this stage. They’re all buddies." Nonetheless, Behrendt added, Georgia’s civil society "is still there and it’s still stronger than elsewhere in the former Soviet Union."

Ironically, the government’s predilection for hires with a civil society background has considerably diminished its willingness to listen to outside criticism from the NGO sector or media, said the representative of one international organization. Given the background of many senior staff, little need is seen to listen to outside voices on questions of reform.

"Unfortunately, the new government sees any kind of consultation as useless. And they don’t want to do it," the representative said. "They say it’s a great idea, but they don’t really see the need for some deep policy work."

Yet failure to start that discussion could mean that support for Saakashvili’s reform efforts and understanding of their implications could be limited to the upper echelons of government, the representative said. "You have ministers and deputy ministers and then below that you have no one to talk to . . . Though that policy development process will probably come up, it’s worrisome that they’re going to lose their first year learning that."

But some analysts urge caution in assessing the government’s performance to date. Saakashvili, said Alexander Rondeli, president of the Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies," is in the plane and he’s learning to fly at the same time."

"People are adapting to a changing situation. They’re still learning to be independent . . . This was a lobotomized society. We’re recovering slowly, but we’re recovering."

While everything about Saakashvili’s corruption campaign may not have been "very clean," Rondeli added, "you have to take the first steps."

"This government is revolutionary. It’s conducting revolutionary changes," Rondeli said. "But how effective or good its reforms will be is hard to say. You can’t change such a situation in one day."

Editor�s Note: Daan van der Schriek is a freelance journalist based in Tbilisi.

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