Armenian Government, Opposition Declare Shaky Truce

Armenia's leadership and its political opponents have begun talks to resolve their bitter confrontation over the rule of President Robert Kocharian. The move has brought a temporary lull to the month-long political crisis sparked by the opposition's attempt to remove Kocharian from office.

The negotiations are taking place amidst a 10-day moratorium imposed by the country's two main opposition groups on the anti-government rallies which have been held in the capital, Yerevan, since the beginning of April. [For background see the EurasiaNet Insight archive]. The alliance and the National Unity Party (AMK) state that the protests were suspended to give the government time to stop its crackdown on protest participants and opposition supporters. The moratorium will expire on May 14.

Talks between leaders of Justice and the AMK and the three pro-Kocharian parties making up Armenia's coalition government began on May 6 and will continue this week. The participants have issued a brief statement saying that they agree on "the need to create a new situation in the country" and have approved a long list of issues to be discussed during the dialogue.

But so far, few local analysts expect the dialogue to yield an agreement to compromise. The opposition and government remain far apart on the key issue driving their dispute -- the legitimacy of Robert Kocharian's presidency. The opposition maintains that Kocharian rigged last year's presidential election to win a second term in office and is therefore "illegitimate." His loyalists deny the charges, saying that widespread fraud reported by international observers was not serious enough to affect the election outcome.

The long-standing opposition demand for a "referendum of confidence" in Kocharian -- one of the main issues to be discussed in the talks -- illustrates this divide.

This idea was first floated by Armenia's Constitutional Court in the wake of the February-March 2003 presidential ballot and has since been heavily exploited by the opposition. Kocharian and his loyalists have categorically rejected it as unconstitutional. In parliament earlier this year, they refused all discussion of the issue. Kocharian's supporters now say they are ready to discuss the measure's "legality," while indicating they will not agree to hold the proposed referendum. "If the opposition continues to insist on the referendum, no dialogue will be possible," a leader of the governing Armenian Revolutionary Federation, Armen Rustamian, said this past weekend.

The opposition, on the other hand, says a regime change "without upheavals" must be the basis of the crisis talks. "Our view remains the same: Robert Kocharian must either resign or be dismissed or we will hold a kind of referendum of confidence together with you," Justice's Albert Bazeyan told thousands of supporters as they rallied in Yerevan on May 4.

Both sides are keen to show that they are following the recommendations made by the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE). In a resolution on the political situation in Armenia adopted on April 28, the PACE urged the government and opposition to embark on a "dialogue without preconditions." As the Yerevan daily "Haykakan Zhamanak" commented, neither Armenian authorities nor their foes want to appear the recalcitrant party in the eyes of the Strasbourg-based, pan-European organization.

Each of the parties has interpreted the PACE resolution as vindicating its own position in the standoff. The presidential camp argues that the document did not endorse the referendum of confidence and made clear that the 2003 election irregularities "did not decisively change the outcome of the elections nor invalidate their final results."

The opposition, for its part, points to the PACE's threat to impose sanctions on Armenia if it fails to lift "unjustified restrictions" on peaceful demonstrations, release individuals detained for their participation in the anti-Kocharian rallies and investigate the "human rights abuses alleged against the Kocharian government. The resolution mandates that Armenian authorities report back to the European parliament by June about the status of their investigations and prosecutions of those found responsible for violation of citizens' rights.

Since the campaign of street protests began on April 7, hundreds of opposition activists and their supporters nationwide have reportedly been harassed, detained and jailed. The crackdown was strongly condemned by Human Rights Watch last week. "The Armenian government is repeating the same sorts of abuses that called into question the legitimacy of last year's election and sparked the protests in the first place," Rachel Denber, acting executive director of HRW's New Europe and Central Asia division, said in a May 4 statement. "The cycle of repression must end."

In a separate 21-page report, the New York-based watchdog group provided a detailed account of the "mass arrest and police violence against opposition supporters." It singled out the brutal break-up of an opposition rally on Yerevan's Marshal Baghramian Avenue leading to Kocharian's residence on the night from April 12-13. Riot police used water cannons, stun grenades and, according to some witnesses, electric-shock equipment to disperse the crowd of between 2,000 and 3,000 protesters. The police arrested and seriously injured at least 115 people and ransacked the offices of the three main opposition parties, the report states.

Despite the PACE and HRW criticisms, the authorities last week continued to arrest dozens of participants in unsanctioned protests and to sentence some of them to up to 15 days in prison under Armenia's Soviet-era Code of Administrative Offenses. They also restricted provincial residents' access to Yerevan ahead of a May 4 opposition rally, effectively ignoring the PACE demand to "guarantee freedom of movement inside Armenia."

The Justice and AMK leaders have given Kocharian until May 14 to end the crackdown and release all "political prisoners." What they will do if those demands are not met, though, is not yet clear. Another march towards the presidential palace remains a possibility, even though opposition members have twice delayed it. The postponement of the march has prompted some commentators to conclude that their bid to emulate the Georgian experience has already failed.

"We never intended to repeat the Georgian scenario here," opposition leader and former Prime Minister Aram Sarkisian, told EurasiaNet on May 4 while he and his allies led about 10,000 people in a march towards the Armenian police headquarters. "First of all, because Robert Kocharian is very far from being a [deposed Georgian President Eduard] Shevardnadze in terms of his commitment to democracy and popularity; secondly, today's rally showed that we are gaining momentum, not losing it."

Even if no "decisive action" results from this week's talks, Sarkisan said, the opposition will press on with its protests. "What else can the people do apart from gathering, expressing their views and holding marches?"