Prospect of Georgia’s CIS Withdrawal Doesn’t Faze Russia

The Georgian government on May 10 announced the establishment of a government commission to weigh the pros and cons of a withdrawal from the Commonwealth of Independent States. The prospect of Georgia's departure does not disturb Russian policymakers, who assert Tbilisi would suffer the most from such a move.

Russian bans on the importation of Georgian wine and mineral water prompted Tbilisi to take up the matter of a CIS withdrawal. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Georgian Prime Minister Zurab Noghaideli said that the new commission would meet weekly to debate ways of limiting the economic disruption that a departure from the CIS would undoubtedly cause, according to the Civil Georgia web site.

Russian officials and experts say such Georgian action would entail plenty of pain, without much gain. Moscow media outlets have carried cautionary reports in recent days, warning Georgia of dire economic consequences. Russia and its allies within the CIS would take quick retaliatory action against Georgia to close their markets to all kinds of Georgian exports, Russian political analysts said. Russia remains one of Georgia's major trade partners, accounting for roughly 16 percent of Georgia's total foreign trade turnover, while Georgia represents a mere 0.1 percent of Russia's foreign trade, noted a commentary broadcast by state-run RTR television.

The state-run RIA Novosti news agency distributed a report, quoting unnamed Russian experts, predicting that Georgia's agricultural sector, which employs roughly half of the Caucasus country's working population, would be hit hard. Tbilisi could also experience trouble with electricity supplies, as Georgia generates only about 40 percent of the power it consumes. The rest is imported, most of it from Russia, the RIA Novosti report said.

Leading Russian MPs asserted that Georgia's departure from the grouping of former Soviet states would merely compound Tbilisi's economic woes. Konstantin Kosachev, head of the Russian duma's International Relations Committee, said Georgia cannot address pressing economic and political issues without Russian cooperation. Meanwhile, Fedor Lukyanov, the editor of Russia in Global Politics magazine, said that Tbilisi could not count on the United States, which has emerged as Georgia's main strategic partner, to subsidize the Georgian economy.

A CIS withdrawal could dash Tbilisi's dream of restoring its control over two separatist territories – Abkhazia and South Ossetia – some Russian officials have hinted. Russia would seem to hold the key to the two regions' destinies. In March, South Ossetian leaders said they would file suit in Russia's Constitutional Court, seeking permission for the territory's accession to the Russian Federation. And as talk of a CIS withdrawal gained momentum in Tbilisi, Sergei Bagapsh, leader of the separatist territory of Abkhazia, expressed a desire for the would-be independent statelet to gain recognition as a CIS member.

Russian officials disavowed any direct role in prompting Bagapsh's overture, however, the Kremlin did not look unfavorably upon it. "Anyone, head of state or a territory, has a right to express his thoughts, plans and ideas," Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin commented on Bagapsh's statement. Konstantin Zatulin, an MP, suggested that CIS membership for Abkhazia was unthinkable as long as Georgia remained in the organization. A Georgian withdrawal, however, could remove obstacles to Abkhazia's accession, he added.

On May 4, Abkhazia scored a propaganda point in its ongoing struggle with Tbilisi by releasing a draft peace blueprint, titled "The Key to the Future." The plan, though billed as "comprehensive," provided few specifics. Among the main points of the plan, a lasting peace settlement would require a Georgia apology for conducting a "state policy of assimilation, war, and isolation" in the early 1990s. Abkhaz leaders were quick to point out that their side was the first to propose a peace plan of any kind. According to a Georgian parliamentary resolution adopted last October, the government was supposed to develop a peace blueprint by May 1. But no Georgian government plan has of yet been publicly released.

Experts and officials in Tbilisi contend that the Abkhaz peace plan is disingenuous, citing the fact that Abkhaz leaders during May 6 talks with a visiting NATO Parliamentary Assembly delegation insisted that the territory's independence be recognized. The territory's self-styled foreign minister, Sergei Shamba, told reporters after the talks that "the only possible form in which Abkhazia and Georgia can co-exist is in the capacity of two independent states."

Another source of consternation in Tbilisi appears to be the flagging efforts of Georgia's wine industry to find new markets. Following the imposition of the Russian ban, President Mikheil Saakashvili launched a crisis-management initiative in mid-April to find new export markets for Georgian wine. On May 10, he lambasted the Agriculture Ministry and local winemakers for poor performance. He indicated that Georgian producers had to take tougher action to eliminate the proliferation of counterfeit brands of Georgian wine. During an early May visit to Vilnius, Lithuania, Saakashvili said he was appalled when, upon visiting a local supermarket, he found blatantly counterfeit brands of Georgian wine on the shelves. During a cabinet session, broadcast by Georgian television stations, he displayed three fake bottles of Georgian brands – Khvanchkara, Saperavi, and Kindzmarauli – that he reportedly purchased in Vilnius.

"While the Georgian Agriculture Ministry is sleeping and most of our winemakers, to put it bluntly, are sleeping, smart Bulgarian, Spanish, Lithuanian and Czech wine-producers, or whatever they are -- who might not know Georgian, but know marketing very well – are successfully gaining access to markets and making hundreds of millions of dollars while our ... [wine grapes] are rotting here," Civil Georgia quoted Saakashvili as saying.