Heider Aliyev medical condition

A frail-looking Heidar Aliyev has returned to Azerbaijan following a week-long stay at a Turkish hospital. However, the Azerbaijani president's presence in Baku hasn't put a stop to reports of political infighting within his administration. Some opposition media outlets are also raising economic concerns, saying the country's uncertain leadership situation poses a threat to Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline construction.

Aliyev flew into Baku during the early hours of May 11, according to pro-government media. A day earlier, Aliyev's 80th birthday, Turkish state television broadcast the first images of the Azerbaijani president since his arrival for treatment at the Gulhane military hospital in Ankara. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. In the footage, a gaunt Aliyev stands to meet with Turkish President Ahmet Necdet Sezer.

The Azerbaijani president's re-emergence appears to contradict opposition media report's that he is gravely ill. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Prior to Aliyev's meeting with Sezer, Azerbaijani officials were circumspect when discussing the president's condition while insisting that he remained closely involved in running the government. Meanwhile, authorities denounced opposition media for publishing "libellous" reports alleging that Aliyev was close to death.

Leading opposition dailies, including Yeni Musavat, appeared unrepentant over their aggressive coverage of the Aliyev health issue. A May 12 report in Yeni Musavat claimed that Aliyev remained seriously ill with cardiovascular problems. Citing a source within the administration, the newspaper added that the president might travel in the near future to a medical facility in Cleveland, Ohio, for additional treatment. Aliyev in recent years has undergone several operations at the Cleveland clinic, including prostate surgery in 2002 and a hernia procedure earlier this year. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Opposition media outlets are also carrying reports on alleged government infighting connected with a possible succession struggle. Several reports in the May 12 edition of Yeni Musavat suggested that there was widespread dissatisfaction in top government circles with the head of the presidential administration, Ramiz Mekhtiyev, who is suspected of trying to enhance his own personal authority. In one article, Yeni Musavat alleged that Mekhtiyev had "assumed the power of the head of state." The newspaper went on to quote Calal Aliyev, president's brother, as shouting at Mekhtiyev: "Who are you to aspire to power that my brother built over the past 40 years?"

Yeni Musavat also claimed that some top government officials, including Interior Minister Ramiz Usubov, are refusing to comply with Mekhtiyev's instructions. "I am not subordinate to you," the newspaper quoted Usubov as telling Mekhtiyev. "I am subordinate to the president and I will only fulfil instructions from his legitimate successor."

The political succession question remains prominent, despite Aliyev's return to Baku. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. From the start of Aliyev's health crisis, speculation has swirled around who might assume interim executive authority if the president died, or could not continue on in office. If anything, succession speculation appears to be gaining momentum, fuelled in part by the return of Prime Minister Artur Rasizade to Baku on May 10.

Under Azerbaijan's constitution, Rasizade is designated as Aliyev's interim successor. However, Rasizade's almost three-week absence in the United States, reportedly for eye surgery, had fuelled talk that Aliyev's inner circle would like to shunt the prime minister aside. Many political observers continue to believe Aliyev's most likely successor would be his son, Ilham.

Meanwhile, opposition media outlets warned that any political succession that did not adhere to the constitution could be destabilizing. "At this juncture, our national interests prescribe that a [possible] transfer of power takes place on the basis of the constitution and without bloodshed," said a Yeni Musavat commentary.

Some media outlets claim the Aliyev health crisis is already posing a threat to the completion of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Specifically, a commentary in the Azadliq daily said the uncertain leadership situation in Baku was hampering Azerbaijan's ability to attract additional financing for the project.

Aliyev's health problems have "scuttled any chance of adopting clear-cut decisions in the near future, and creates serious problems in developing cooperation with international finance and credit organizations," the May 9 commentary said.

Azadliq cited the uncertainty surrounding an International Finance Corp. (IFC) loan as a cause for particular concern. Officials at the IFC, the World Bank's private-sector financing arm, have announced they will decide on whether to extend $150 million in financing for the BTC project in October or November. The loan is reportedly contingent on Azerbaijan's ability to address environmental concerns, especially at a stretch of the pipeline near Borjomi, Georgia, which is a well-known mineral water source, the MPA news agency reported. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

The Azadliq commentary noted that the global energy picture has been significantly altered by Saddam Hussein's ouster in Iraq. The shift means that the BTC project will be challenged to prevent investors' attention from shifting to Iraq. Accordingly, firm leadership from the Azerbaijani government is needed, the newspaper indicated.

"An unfavourable situation has emerged for Azerbaijan in the international investment climate," the commentary said. "We have to address not only the problems with financing the BTC project, but also the threat of the project being cancelled. Unfortunately, the Azerbaijani government is in no hurry to prevent this threat at such a critical time."