Iranian Developing New Security Initiatives To Counter Perceived US Threat

Feeling threatened by the US military presence in neighboring Iraq and Afghanistan, Iranian leaders are embracing a classic deterrence concept that relies on strategic regional alliances and military preparedness to discourage enemies. The Iranian Foreign Ministry is promoting a "regional security" initiative that seeks to enhance Tehran's ties to countries in the Caucasus. At the same time, top Iranian military offic

ials have spoken about a need to develop a "defensive deterrence" strategy, a possible reference to Iran's efforts to produce nuclear weapons.

Since taking office, the Bush administration position towards Tehran has been largely hostile, with Iran designated as a member of the "Axis of Evil." Iranian leaders now believe that, in the aftermath of the US-led ouster of Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein, Tehran may come under intensifying pressure from Washington. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. To help deter possible pressure, Iran has taken steps in recent weeks to reach out to the three Caucasus countries – Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia.

During a late April visit to Armenia, Iranian Foreign Minister Kamal Kharrazi proposed the creation of a regional security group comprising the three Caucasus states, along with Iran, Russian and Turkey. To enhance the chances of such a new security framework becoming a reality, Kharrazi expressed Iran's willingness to mediate between Armenia and Azerbaijan in an effort to break the stalemate in Nagorno-Karabakh peace talks.

Kharrazi's security initiative encountered a cool reception in the Caucasus. Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Vilayet Guliyev rejected the idea, saying that Baku's preference is to enhance NATO's profile in the region. Georgia has expressed a similar desire to seek NATO integration, believing a Western presence offers the best chance for improving the Caucasus' security climate. Even in Armenia, which enjoys the best relationship with Iran of the three Caucasus states, political observers viewed the Iranian proposal as unfeasible.

In an April 30 commentary titled "Vain Efforts," the Armenian newspaper Aykakan Zhamanak expressed understanding for Iranian diplomatic efforts, but said Tehran was incapable of providing the security assistance that the Caucasus needed.

"Certainly, Iran is concerned about the increase in the United States' influence near its southern [Persian Gulf] and eastern [Afghan] borders, and it does not want the same to happen in the north, that is the Caucasus," the newspaper commentary said. "Neither Armenia, Azerbaijan nor Georgia can manage yet without the growing role of the United States ... In the event of a diminution of this role, the situation in the Caucasus could spiral out of control from Nagorno-Karabakh to Abkhazia."

Perhaps realizing in advance that Iranian diplomatic endeavors stood little chance of success, the Iranian defense establishment has been espousing a doctrine of "self-reliance." Defense Minister Ali Shamkhani provided the clearest picture of the defense strategy in a February interview with the conservative Iranian newspaper Siasat-e Rouz.

"In order to assure national security in a changing international environment, it is necessary to incorporate changes in Iran's defense structure," Shamkhani said. "Iran's defense structure and defense future are based on a foundation of 'strategic deterrent defense.' This [strategy] does not in any way contradict the patterns of reliance on diplomatic relations, but must be understood as 'complementary programs' in a process of creating bilateral and multilateral links [among its various elements]."

Shamkhani stressed that Iran strives to develop capabilities that would enable the country to absorb a first strike. "Under these conditions, if there is the [capability] to sustain a first strike, there is a basis for [Iranian] secondary resistance against the threats," Shamkhani said. "Defensive deterrence causes the enemy to relinquish the threats. Because under such circumstances every country must [take into consideration] the risk it runs if it takes offensive measures against Iran."

Shamkhani went on to say that "Iran's defense and national security must be reflected in manufacturing new armaments so as to achieve deterrence." Security experts in Washington believe Shamkhani's comments are a reference to Iran's efforts to develop nuclear weapons.

US officials have long suspected that Iran's is working feverishly on a nuclear weapons program. Last February, Iranian President Mohammed Khatami announced that the country would start extracting uranium "to make use of advanced nuclear technology for peaceful purposes." Though Khatami insisted that Iran's nuclear program would uphold international conventions regarding civilian application, his February announcement stoked concerns about Tehran's desire to produce nuclear weapons.

In late 2002, US State Department officials accused Iran of exaggerating its energy needs, using it as a cover for its weapons-development project. US diplomats have expressed particular concern about the construction of the $800-million Bushehr nuclear power plant.

Some US defense experts also warn that existing International Atomic Energy Agency monitoring methods and safeguards are insufficient to prevent Iran from secretly using its civilian nuclear research program to help develop weapons of mass destruction.