EurasiaNet Eurasia Insight - Failure to Forge Closer CIS Ties Leaves Russia With Difficult Strategic Options

EURASIA INSIGHT

FAILURE TO FORGE CLOSER CIS TIES LEAVES RUSSIA WITH DIFFICULT STRATEGIC OPTIONS

Sergei Blagov 5/16/02

In advance of a May 24 summit of US President George W. Bush and Russian leader Vladimir Putin, the Kremlin has attempted to boost its negotiating position by seeking to consolidate ties among other former Soviet states. However, the failure of CIS states to embrace a stronger strategic partnership leaves the Kremlin with no viable option other than seeking a rapprochement with the West largely on Washington’s terms.

The latest blow to Russia’s effort to maintain its strategic influence came during a meeting of leaders of the Collective Security Treaty (CST) member states on May 14. The summit marked the 10th anniversary of the CST, which brings together Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.

Participants agreed to upgrade the group’s status, transforming it into the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). However, member states stopped short of endorsing a Moscow-backed plan to establish a joint defense body within the Russian General Staff that would be responsible for coordinating CSTO military issues. Some defense analysts described the proposal as an attempt to forge a Warsaw Pact-type military bloc among CIS states. Instead, summit participants opted to create "a group of coordinators-representatives of chiefs of general staff of the CSTO."

Russia is pursuing other multi-lateral options aimed improving its regional security position. But like the CSTO, those efforts have yet to produce tangible results. On May 15, for example, defense ministers from the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), which includes Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, China and Russia, gathered in Moscow to prepare for a SCO summit in early June. The SCO in recent months has struggled to remain strategically relevant in Central Asia, where the United States has established several military bases. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive]. According to the RIA news agency, the SCO defense ministers agreed on a joint statement that expressed support for the Afghan interim administration and advocated a nuclear free zone in Central Asia.

In addition, a meeting of the so-called Eurasian Economic Community, or EEC, convened May 13. The EEC members - Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan - agreed to refrain from punitive trade tariffs and to coordinate their respective World Trade Organization (WTO) bids. So far, only one EEC member state, Kyrgyzstan, has joined the WTO. Despite the agreement, some economic observers note the EEC has yet to demonstrate that it can function as a cohesive organization. They note that many of the EEC’s decisions have not been implemented.

During the EEC summit, Putin had been expected to assume the chairmanship of the organization. Yet, during the course of the meeting, the Russian leader called for Kazakhstani President Nursultan Nazarbayev to be re-elected to serve another one-year term.

Nazarbayev attempted to put positive spin on the inability of CIS states to strengthen ties. Speaking at the CSTO summit, Nazarbayev described the organization as an "insurance policy" against outside threats.

With Russia unable to create a reliable alliance of CIS states, Putin has apparently decided that closer cooperation with the United States offers the best way of promoting Russian strategic interests. On May 13, Putin praised the planned US-Russian strategic arms limitation treaty, which is expected to be signed later this month.

According to the new agreement, the United States and Russia are to cut their deployed strategic nuclear warheads to 1,700-2,200 from current levels of about 5,000 to 6,000. Either side could pull out of the treaty on three months’ notice, half the length of earlier agreements. According to Russian Foreign Ministry, the new treaty is to remain effective until 2012.

In a yet another sign of on-going rapprochement between Russia and the West, officials approved on May 14 the creation of a Russia-NATO Council, which is to hold its inaugural session May 28. The council will function in a consultative capacity, focusing on anti-terrorism issues and the nonproliferation of weapons of mass destruction. Despite Russia’s participation on the council, Russian officials say they intend to maintain their opposition to NATO’s continued eastern expansion.

Putin’s moves to improve relations with the West appear to have rankled a significant portion of Russia’s national security establishment. Some top Russian security officials are reportedly opposing Putin’s overtures to Washington, claiming that by reducing its nuclear arsenal, Russia may be giving up one of its last remaining tools of global influence. Meanwhile, a series of published open letters signed by retired generals have blamed Putin for compromising the country’s security.

Closer ties with NATO also do not seem to enjoy broad popular support. Over 50 percent of Russians still believe that the NATO has "aggressive intentions," according to one public opinion poll released in Moscow on May 15. At the same time, 64 percent of those polled believe that Russia should cooperate with NATO.

Editor�s Note: Sergei Blagov is a Moscow-based specialist in CIS political affairs.

The Central Eurasia Project aims, through its website, meetings, papers, and grants, to foster a more informed debate about the social, political and economic developments of the Caucasus and Central Asia. It is a program of the Open Society Institute-New York. The Open Society Institute-New York is a private operating and grantmaking foundation that promotes the development of open societies around the world by supporting educational, social, and legal reform, and by encouraging alternative approaches to complex and controversial issues.

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