Armenia, Azerbaijan Appear to Edge Closer to Karabakh Peace

Armenia and Azerbaijan appear to have moved closer to resolving their long-running conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, following a face-to-face meeting between the Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents.

Officials in both countries remained tight-lipped about details of the latest round of talks. But it appears Armenian President Robert Kocharian and his Azerbaijani counterpart Ilham Aliyev built on progress made by their foreign ministers over the past year. The two ministers are now expected to start another series of peace talks to try to flesh out understandings reportedly reached by Aliyev and Kocharian.

The Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders spoke for nearly three hours late on May 15 and early on May 16 on the sidelines of a Council of Europe summit in Warsaw. "I hope that the negotiations will produce results and the issues between us will be resolved," Aliyev told Azerbaijani journalists afterward.

"The Armenian side finds positive the latest meeting in Warsaw between the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan," the Armenian Foreign Ministry said in a statement on May 18. "It was yet another step forward in the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict."

Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov and his Armenian opposite number Vartan Oskanian have said they were given a mandate to continue the so-called "Prague process." The two men held a series of meetings in the Czech capital last year and in January, reporting significant progress toward a long-awaited Karabakh settlement. They both said in April that further headway required the personal intervention of their presidents.

Russia's chief Karabakh negotiator, Yuri Merzlyakov, told Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty on May 19 that the two leaders had reached "a point where they can no longer say general things." Publicizing details of their discussions at this juncture would be highly counterproductive, Merzlyakov said.

But some details have emerged. Speaking on Armenian state television May 19, Oskanian revealed that the agenda of the negotiations included four basic "elements" -- Karabakh's status (the main bone of contention), the liberation of Armenian-occupied Azerbaijani territories that surround the disputed enclave, return of refugees and post-conflict security. "We have reached common ground on some issues and serious disagreements on others. Our differences have been somewhat bridged on one issue," he said, adding that it relates to Karabakh's future status.

The conflicting parties have reportedly been discussing a gradual resolution of the conflict, under which a formal determination on Karabakh's status would be preceded by the evacuation of Armenian forces from broad swaths of territory in Azerbaijan. Armenian troops occupied the Azerbaijani territory during the 1991-1994 war. This so-called "phased" strategy of conflict resolution has always been preferred by Azerbaijan. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Official Yerevan and Karabakh's ethnic Armenian leadership until recently insisted on a "package" accord that would resolve all contentious issues at once. But they now seem ready to embrace the phased formula so long as they get other international guarantees of continued Armenian control over Karabakh. Armenian Defense Minister Serge Sarkisian noted recently that this could include a formal pledge by the international community to hold a referendum of independence in Karabakh.

"The issue of Karabakh's status of paramount importance to us," stressed Oskanian. "Without having it clarified [beforehand] we are simply not prepared for serious discussions on other issues