News of Progress on Karabakh Talks Gets Cautious Reception in Armenia and Azerbaijan

While officials in Armenia and Azerbaijan have expressed guarded optimism about the possibility of a Nagorno-Karabakh settlement, significant obstacles remain in place that could block any potential deal.

Various reports suggested that the May 15-16 meeting between Armenian President Robert Kocharian and Azerbaijani leader Ilham Aliyev moved the search for Karabakh peace forward. At the same time, there are few details on the substance of the discussions available, as the participants have generally declined to elaborate on the talks.

Much of the reaction in Armenian and Azerbaijani media has focused on Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov's assertion that Armenia agreed to a "step-by-step" peace formula, under which Armenian forces would withdraw from seven regions of Azerbaijani territory that surround Karabakh. [For additional information see the accompanying EurasiaNet story].

In the days leading up to the Kocharian-Aliyev meeting in Warsaw, Azerbaijani media considered the Armenian withdrawal to be a foregone conclusion. "The Armenians Have Given Their Consent: The Seven Occupied Regions Will Be Liberated," read a headline in the Azerbaijani daily Sharg on May 13.

An underlying assumption held by some Azerbaijani analysts seemed to be that Armenia had no choice but to accede to Azerbaijani demand for a step-by-step formula. "With the near completion of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline and the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum gas pipeline, along with the start of construction on a Kars-Akhalkalaki-Baku railroad and the launch of a North-South transport corridor, the regional isolation of Armenia would seem inevitable [without a Karabakh agreement]," television reporter Ganira Pashayeva said in a commentary broadcast by the Azerbaijani station ANS on May 15.

On May 18, Armenian Foreign Ministry spokesman Gamlet Gasparian adamantly denied that Armenian forces would be moving out of the occupied territories. He called reports of a promised withdrawal to be "absolutely contrary to the facts," and "wide of the mark," according to various Armenian media reports.

Some Armenian politicians and experts believe that domestic political factors in Azerbaijan were pushing Azerbaijani officials to misrepresent the issues discussed in Warsaw. A widely held view in Yerevan is that Aliyev's administration is feeling pressure from the country's opposition parties. With Azerbaijan scheduled to hold parliamentary elections later this year, members of the Aliyev team are anxious to score a political victory ahead of the election, Armenian observers believe.

Galust Sahakian, the legislative leader of the Republican Party, the largest faction in the Armenian parliament, told the A1+ television station: "Allegations concerning the [Armenian occupied] territories are connected with the parliamentary elections in Azerbaijan." Sahakian went on to suggest that some forecasts circulating in Yerevan indicate that the Azerbaijani election could produce a "change of power."

Many political analysts believe Kocharian also has little room for political maneuver. Any perception that Kocharian was making concessions to Azerbaijan could upset a delicate political balance in Yerevan, providing opposition parties with fresh ammunition to damage the president's domestic political position.

Recent polling data indicates sharp divisions within Armenian society on the Karabakh issue. According to a poll conducted by the Armenian Center for National and International Studies in April, 50 percent of Armenia's population believes that concessions to Azerbaijan are needed to produce a Karabakh settlement. Meanwhile, 37.7 percent is categorically against any compromises. The remainder does not have a strong opinion on the issue. At the same time, almost all Armenians polled believe that Karabakh must remain outside of Baku's control.

Some Armenian media outlets have suggested that the latest round of Kocharian-Aliyev talks made little headway in the search for lasting peace in Karabakh. "Although the results of the meeting between Robert Kocharian and Ilham Aliyev, which took place May 15 in Warsaw, were kept secret, everything is clear: they failed," said a commentary published by the Armenian newspaper Aravot on May 17.

A significant portion of the Azerbaijani population also remains skeptical that peace in Karabakh may be within reach. "They [governments] give these promises for many years, but no results. I don't believe that anything will be achieved any time soon," said Akif Rahmanov, 58 year old engineer.