Azerbaijan: Officials Plan for "Problem-Free" Presidential Election

In looking ahead to a presidential election in Azerbaijan later this year, officials are emphasizing a sense of calm and continuity, and opposition leaders are divided among themselves. As a result, campaign season has been almost eerily quiet so far.

The election will not take place until October, so there is still plenty of time for politics to heat up in Baku. But some observers are predicting a continuation of relative silence on the domestic political front. With energy-export revenue streaming into state coffers, the government remains in a dominant political position. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Under current conditions, few ordinary Azerbaijanis doubt that Ilham Aliyev will win reelection in October.

Many pundits wonder whether the opposition will be able to come together in time to mount any semblance of a campaign. At present, unlike in the past, there are no opposition rallies (authorized or unauthorized), and no talk about opposition consolidation. The government, meanwhile, is content to count down the days until October. State-controlled mass media outlets have paid scant attention to the looming vote.

From the opposition camp, only Musavat Party leader Isa Gambar, and For the Sake of Azerbaijan coalition chairman Eldar Namazov have announced plans to run for president. The Azadlig (Freedom) bloc, which includes the Popular Front of Azerbaijan Party, the Liberal Party and two smaller political parties, intends to boycott the election.

Rather than taking aim at the presidential incumbent, Aliyev, opposition leaders have been preoccupied mainly with internecine bickering. On May 17, the Yeni Musavat newspaper, which is close to Gambar's Musavat Party, published an article that accused Popular Front Party of Azerbaijan leader Ali Kerimli of "fulfilling the orders of Iranian and Russian circles." The article contained similar accusations against Liberal Party chief Lala Shovket, another leader of the Azadlig bloc.

The following day, the Azadlig newspaper, which has close ties to the Popular Front, responded with an article that accused Yeni Musavat Editor-in-Chief Rauf Arifoglu of "fulfilling government orders."

It may be that Aliyev's greatest challenge in the coming months comes from within his own administration, some experts suggest. Several indicators have surfaced in recent weeks that suggest a behind-the-scenes power struggle is under way among Aliyev's top lieutenants.

Experts' attention has focused mainly on the usually publicity-shy presidential administration chief Ramiz Mehdiyev, who has made several provocative statements in recent weeks, including a complaint about supposed "interference" by the United States and European Union in "Azerbaijan's internal affairs." [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Mehdiyev also castigated Defense Minister Safar Abiyev, who officially nominated President Aliyev for reelection. Mehdiyev asserted that it was improper for defense minister to make the nomination, adding that "the armed forces should not be involved in politics."

In addition, Mehdiyev, during a recent visit to Moscow, received the Order of Friendship from Russian President Dmitri Medvedev, and then proceeded to call for Azerbaijan to adopt the Kremlin's practice of using the presidential administration's supervisory department to keep various economic sectors "under control."

"In fact, they are keeping all institutions in the country – in construction, social, industrial and defense sectors – under control. It is a very useful experience and I believe we should use this experience and apply a similar control system in Azerbaijan," Mehdiyev told the Azertag news agency on May 15.

Independent political analyst Ilgar Mammadov believes that both the defense minister's statement and Mehdiyev's comments in praise of Moscow and criticizing the West are signs of "some controversies inside the ruling elite concerning the upcoming elections."

"It is difficult to say exactly which games are being played there, but obviously these statements and moves are signaling the existence of some problems," Mammadov said.

Elkhan Shahinoglu, an analyst from the Baku-based Atlas political research center, believes that the power struggle will intensify. "Probably closer to the elections, we will witness more controversies inside the government," Shahinoglu said.

Such government tug-of-wars are usual during Azerbaijani elections campaigns, he added. "However, this time I do not expect anything extraordinary as happened in 2005 with Farhad Aliyev and Ali Insanov," Shahinoglu said in reference to the arrest of the then economic development minister and health minister on the eve of Azerbaijan's parliamentary elections for alleged involvement in a coup attempt. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

The political jockeying does not appear to have had a noticeable effect on logistical preparations for the elections. Even with Aliyev's reelection seemingly assured, authorities do not seem willing to leave anything to chance.

Changes to the election code, expected to be adopted in late May, indicate that the government has decided to reject calls from the Council of Europe on ensuring parity between the ruling Yeni Azerbaijan Party and opposition groups in election commissions, according to one non-governmental organization activist familiar with the proposed amendments.

"The draft proposes 82 amendments to the existing election code. However, all of these changes are technical," said Alekser Mammadli, a member of the Azerbaijan Lawyers Association, which monitors pending legislation. "The amendments do not imply parity in election commissions."

One additional election code amendment has already provided fire for opposition claims that the election is stacked against them. Under the draft, presidential candidates must pay 300,000 manats (about $364,000) to register for the vote if they fail to collect the signatures of 45,000 voters in 50 constituencies. Currently, candidates must pay a 30,000-manat fee.

Authorities rebuff criticism. "Let the international organizations criticize elections in their own countries," parliamentary administration chief Safa Mirzoyev said during a May 2 news conference in Baku. "Parity [in election commissions] is a useless thing which will hamper the elections."

That dismissal is unlikely to assuage international concerns about the vote's conduct. The May 14 decision of a Baku court to cancel the registration of the country's largest election monitoring non-governmental organization (the Election Monitoring Center), has already set off alarm bells. The Ministry of Justice filed suit calling for the annulment of the organization's registration after the publication of several media reports that the United States Embassy in Baku allegedly planned to ask the center to run a parallel vote tabulation of the October 15 elections.

"It [the court decision] puts the government's promises to hold free and fair elections under question," the center's chairman, Anar Mammadli, said at a new conference held the day after his center's registration was revoked. The US Embassy and the Baku office of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe have issued statements calling on the government to restore the Election Monitoring Center's registration.

Political rallies – always a sensitive subject in elections past – have also encountered difficulties. Amendments to the law on freedom of assembly specify that protests can be held only in those places designated by city officials, and only after the city's official permission is received.

On May 4, the Baku city government denied the opposition Musavat Party permission to hold a demonstration in the city center, offering instead stadium space in an outlying suburb. Musavat declined the offer. Meanwhile, officials are stressing that they will not tolerate mass opposition protests along the lines of those seen in Yerevan in February. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].