Tajikistan: New Opposition Coalition Suffers from Lack of Cohesion

Opposition parties in Tajikistan have come together in a push for transparent parliamentary elections in early 2005. Political analysts, however, say the bloc is already suffering from a lack of cohesion that is hampering its effectiveness. Meanwhile, a report prepared by international experts cautions that Tajik stability is "at risk."

The Coalition for Just and Transparent Elections, formed on April 30, comprises the Islamic Renaissance Party (IRP), the Social-Democrat Party and the Socialist Party of Tajikistan. Another prominent opposition force, the Democratic Party, is conspicuously absent from the coalition. It appears as though Rahmonov was able to peel the Democratic Party away from the opposition bloc.

Democratic Party leader Mahmadruzi Iskandarov recently told the British Broadcasting Corp. that he had a seven-hour conversation with Rahmonov that yielded a political truce between his party and the administration. Iskandarov said Rahmonov had agreed to two key demands: the refinement of an amnesty law to cover all opposition members who fought against government forces during the 1992-97 civil war; and a presidential commitment to seek opposition and international input in the drafting of a new election law.

Iskandarov has suggested that he would consider joining the opposition coalition if Rahmonov failed to follow through on commitments made during their meeting. Some local observers, however, believe Iskandarov's decision not to join the opposition bloc at the outset puts the new coalition at a severe disadvantage, perhaps even dooming its ability to promote transparent elections.

The same day the opposition announced the formation of the bloc, Rahmonov gave a speech before a joint session of parliament, in which he sought to co-opt his critics' chief campaign issue – transparent elections. "The people of Tajikistan have set a major goal before themselves to create a democratic, law-based, secular and social state,' Rahmonov said. "We must take decisive steps towards this path and create conditions in order to introduce modern democratic elements widely into society."

A study issued May 19 by the International Crisis Group (ICG) indicated the opposition bloc will be hard-pressed to draw clear distinctions between its policy positions and those advanced by Rahmonov's administration. The inability to do so may well damage the opposition's electoral hopes. But the ICG study went on to suggest some opposition leaders aren't interested in upsetting the existing status quo. "Many political parties seem to have come to a modus vivendi with the government, accepting the [ruling party's] near-total control of political life in exchange for a nominal role," said the ICG report, titled "Tajikistan's Politics: Confrontation or Consolidation?"

"Pluralism is accepted as long as it does not threaten the status quo," the report continued. "The regime has set unwritten rules around opposition activity that have long been accepted by the opposition itself."

Stability has remained tenuous in Tajikistan since the end of the civil war. Although (IRP) members have held top governmental posts, relations between the party and Rahmonov have become increasingly tense in recent years, driven in part by the rise of Islamic radical activity in the country. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

As the February 2005 parliamentary elections draw near, some observers expect the president to intensify efforts to neutralize his opponents, including perceived enemies within the government. In recent months, Rahmonov has targeted the IRP, which is the only Islamic party in Central Asia to openly operate. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Political tension, along with lingering economic problems, is endangering the country's "hard-won peace and stability," the ICG report said.

"Rahmonov's efforts to produce peace and stability must be acknowledged," the ICG report said. "However, seven years have passed since the [peace] accords ending the civil war were signed, and there are indications his image as peacemaker is being eroded by poverty, corruption and the slow pace of reform."

Despite Rahmonov's pledge to hasten democratization, the ICG report noted that "little is being done to avoid the malpractice of previous elections." The report is critical of international organizations, including the United Nations and OSCE, along with individual governments, such as the United States, for creating an "impression of complacency" concerning Tajik reforms. "Much more could be done," the report stated. "There is a need for real pressure on the government to improve the election process and introduce true pluralism into the political system."