Turkmenistan Faces a Crisis of Leadership -- Experts

In mid May, Turkmenistan's state television channel reported that the minister of textile production had been sacked for committing, in the words of the country's mercurial despot Saparmurat Niyazov, "many dirty acts." Such reports seem almost a weekly occurrence in Turkmenistan, a country seemingly stuck in a permanent purge cycle. The constant personnel turnover has some experts warning of potential instability in Turkmenistan.

Turkmenistan is mostly known internationally for its natural-gas exports, but before its vast energy reserves began being developed the country's top export commodity was cotton. Turkmenistan still is associated with finished textile items, especially carpets. Thus, the firing of the textiles minister attracted the particular attention of Turkmenistan watchers. In firing the minister, Dortguly Aydogdiyev, Niyazov engaged in what has become a ritual of public humiliation. State television broadcast a cabinet session May 16 during which the Turkmen leader ridiculed Aydogdiyev for incompetence and corrupt practices. "I warned him more than once to stop wrongdoing and take the right path, learn the sector thoroughly," Niyazov said. "The bad thing is that he has no knowledge of the sector, nor does he know economics at all."

If Niyazov was truly disenchanted with the minister's professionalism, he has no one to blame but himself. A major element of the vast cult of personality built by Niyazov involves the constant rotation of government personnel. Indeed, just a few days before Aydogdiyev got the axe, Niyazov fired his fifth head of the country's Central Bank in almost as many years. The problem is, after almost 15 years of constant reshuffling, there are few qualified people left to run the country.

"The effects of Niyazov's destabilizing personnel policy are now obvious. They fuel an atmosphere of fear in government circles that impedes informed policy-making. They also severely erode the levels of experience and professional expertise of professional cadres across the board," said Erika Dailey, director of the Turkmenistan Project at the Open Society Institute. [EurasiaNet also operates under the auspices of OSI].

"In a region where it is common for people to pay enormous bribes in order to buy their way into senior government jobs, in Turkmenistan most people go unwillingly because of the high likelihood that they will soon be fired, disgraced, stripped of their property, and imprisoned," Dailey added.

The situation only stands to get worse. Niyazov's totalitarian ways have decimated the country's education system and health-care sector. Compulsory education ends after only nine years, and the main textbook used in schools is the Ruhnama, a tome outlining the true Turkmen way of living that was supposedly penned by Niyazov. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. The Turkmen leader has also scaled back Russian-language instruction, thus limiting higher educational opportunities for students wanting to study abroad, and restricting citizens' ability to communicate with the outside world. In the health sector, Niyazov, who also goes by the title Turkmenbashi, or leader of the Turkmen, ordered the closure of most hospitals and clinics outside of Ashgabat, and summarily dismissed thousands of nurses and doctors, replacing them with untrained military conscripts. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Given all the moves, the next generation of Turkmen leaders stands to be even less educated and less healthy than the incumbents.

Niyazov's personnel policy was examined during a May 22 Open Forum, sponsored by the Turkmenistan Project. The featured speakers -- Vitalii Ponomarev of Moscow's Memorial Human Rights Center and Farid Tuhbatullin, chairman of the exiled Turkmen Initiative for Human Rights – voiced concern about looming instability in Turkmenistan, related directly to the dearth of qualified government officials.

Turkmenistan may well muddle along as long as Niyazov is alive, his personality cult providing the country with a veneer of stability. But Turkmenistan could easily be plunged into chaos when Niyazov dies, or, for whatever reason, can no longer act as a strongman. His departure from the scene will reveal the country's leadership vacuum, in which any sense of political continuity has been lost, forum speakers asserted. Apart from the president, "there is not a single person in government today whose experience dates back to the 1990s," Ponomarev said.

And even if a political talent is waiting quietly in the wings, there is no clear-cut succession process, raising the likelihood of a fierce power struggle in which the winner stands to be the individual possessing the most brawn, rather than brains. "Whoever has Niyazov's favor isn't capable of assuming power," Tuhbatullin said.

Underscoring the devastating nature of the personnel policy, Dailey pointed to the example of a May 17 United Nations human rights review that focused on Turkmenistan's treatment of women. Ashgabat declined to make any women's rights experts available to represent the Turkmen government during the session, fuelling speculation that none exist in government structures.

The state of Niyazov's health has been the subject of intense speculation in recent years. He has been rumored to suffer from heart disease, requiring treatment by a team of German doctors. But given the secretive nature of his regime, there is no way to independently verify his health status. On May 15, Turkmen state television reported that Niyazov had undergone his annual check-up by a joint team of Turkmen and German specialists. "Following the examination, the doctors said our esteemed leader's health is very good," the report said.

The international community's ability to address Turkmenistan's leadership crisis is limited. Niyazov has gone to great lengths to seal the country off from outside cultural forces, enhancing his ability to resist international pressure to change his ways. [For background see the Eurasia Insight]. In addition, the inability of foreign experts to gain entry to Turkmenistan is hampering development of instability-prevention strategies and emergency response planning, Ponomarev indicated.