Opposition Leaders Make Unity Effort as Kyrgyzstan Prepares for Election Season

A new movement in Kyrgyzstan is advocating transparent parliamentary and presidential elections in 2005. At the same time, participants in the new group openly hope it develops into an opposition vehicle that can mount a challenge President Askar Akayev's hold on political power.

The group, calling itself the Union for Fair Elections (UFE), came into being May 20. At its core are several prominent opposition parties, including Ar-Namys (Honor), led by jailed Akayev rival Feliks Kulov, and the Social Democrats. Although dominated by the opposition, UFE leaders sought to portray the union as having a middle-of-the-road agenda. People's Party leader Melis Eshimkanov, for instance, said the union would strive to act as "a third political force between the authorities and the opposition," according to a report by the KyrgyzInfo news agency.

Perhaps the most surprising UFE participant is Misir Ashirkulov, who had been a member of the president's inner circle of advisors. Ashirkulov was reputedly a leading centrist in Akayev's administration, who, during the height of political tension in 2002, reportedly counseled that the president take a conciliatory approach toward the opposition. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. His decision to join UFE suggests that he lost a struggle against hardliners within the administration for control over the administration's policy agenda. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

"Today we are uniting for real action, with good intentions, despite differences in our political views or party platforms," said a UFE statement issued May 20. "We are ready to cooperate with all citizens who share our thoughts, aspirations and our position."

The appearance of the fair election union creates a headache for Akayev, who has come under fire in recent years for abandoning a democratic reform course. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. A report by the AKIpress news agency on May 25 said that Akayev, during a meeting with Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Lynn Pascoe in Bishkek, complained about the US assessment of democratic reforms. The president told Pascoe that "Kyrgyzstan needed more balanced coverage and due assessment by US official structures," the AKIpress report said.

Akayev's democratic image was not helped by his May 24 decision to relieve Ashirkulov of his duties as Security Council chief. Presidential aides insisted the move was not related to Ashirkulov's UFE move. Most local observers, however, believe Ashirkulov's dismissal was an act of political retribution.

The biggest question surrounding the upcoming presidential election in 2005 is whether or not Akayev will seek a third term. Akayev has repeatedly said he intends to retire, but he has left room to change his mind. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Kyrgyzstan's presidential and parliamentary elections in 2000 were criticized as flawed by international observers. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Opposition leaders firmly believe that in a free and fair vote, they could win control of both the executive and legislative branches of government. Some participants say the UFE is designed to promote opposition unity with the specific goal of nominating a single candidate to run in the presidential election.

A variety of factors – including North-South sectional differences -- have helped keep the opposition divided to date. Akayev has often exploited the opposition's fractious nature in his efforts to defend his political supremacy.

"We should be united to mobilize the electorate," Emil Aliyev, deputy leader of Ar-Namys, said in an interview with EurasiaNet. "Right now, there is a search for a leader. Possible candidates and their qualities are being discussed. It is important that the leader should be independent and should not be under pressure from other forces."

"We count on winning the elections if they are fair," continued Aliyev. "But I do not exclude that before the elections and during them unwanted candidates would be removed physically."

Given the uncertainty surrounding Akayev's potential candidacy, some UFE members are hoping the opposition can get a jump on the presidential campaign. "The government does not have a distinguished person who could win the presidential elections in the first round," said parliamentary deputy Adahan Madumarov. "Therefore, the opposition is already [working towards] putting forward a common candidate. If we achieve that, we could demonstrate our power to authorities and to the people."

Many political observers believe the unified opposition's candidate could turn out to be Ashirkulov. Other possible candidates include parliamentary deputy Kurmanbek Bakiyev, along with Madumarov and Omurbek Tekebaev. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Some observers suggest Bakiyev, a former Prime Minister, could be acceptable to Akayev as a "compromise candidate." Others doubt that Bakiyev enjoys much support in the presidential administration. One analyst stressed the sectional divide, pointing out that Bakiyev is a southerner while Akayev's inner circle is dominated by northerners. A southerner's rise to the presidency could unleash fresh, clan-driven political conflicts, the expert said. "They [Akayev's aides] do not want a stranger entering their garden," the analyst explained. "[T]hey would have to share influence, posts and property."