Eurasia Insight:
PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS FAIL TO CHANGE ARMENIAN STATUS QUO
Emil Danielyan: 5/27/03

Armenia’s parliamentary elections have re-ignited smoldering political tension in the country. Opposition leaders are crying foul after the pro-government party swept to a victory in the election, which was marked by low turnout. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Preliminary election results appear to have dashed hopes for a near-term return of domestic political tranquility.

Armenians also voted on May 25 on a Kocharian-backed package of amendments to the country’s constitution. Referendum results were still not available as of May 27. The referendum required over 50 percent of eligible voters in order to be valid.

In the parliamentary vote, the governing Republican Party of Armenia (HHK) has been declared the winner of the parliamentary poll to the dismay of the opposition, and even some pro-establishment parties, which have alleged widespread electoral fraud. The HHK -- led by Prime Minister Andranik Markarian and the more powerful Defense Minister Serge Sarkisian -- now appears well positioned to retain its dominant influence over both the government and parliament.

The HHK may not even have to form a coalition government with other pro-presidential forces, some political observers say. In the days before the elections, many experts, as well as President Kocharian, had predicted that a coalition government was virtually inevitable. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

According to the preliminary vote results announced by the Central Election Commission (CEC) late on May 26, the HHK won 22.5 percent of vote under the proportional representation system. Seventy-five of the Armenian parliament’s 131 seats are being allotted on the party-list basis.

Armenia’s main opposition group, the Artarutiun (Justice) alliance -- which is led by Stepan Demirchian, Kocharian’s main challenger in the disputed presidential contest -- came in a distant second with 13 percent, followed by the pro-presidential Orinats Yerkir (Country of Law) party which had about 11.8 percent. Trailing them were the influential Armenian Revolutionary Federation --Dashnaktsutiun (11 percent), which also has supported Kocharian, and the opposition National Unity party (8.5 percent).

Only one other political group -- the obscure United Labor Party, which is led by a millionaire businessman -- looked set to pass the 5 percent vote threshold for entering the legislature. Several small pro-Kocharian parties appear to have failed to clear the 5 percent hurdle, despite running high-profile and expensive campaigns. Also, Armenia will have no Communist Part lawmakers for the first time in its post-Soviet history.

The official figures were immediately rejected as fraudulent by Artarutiun. "The Artarutiun alliance does not accept the official results of the May 25 elections published by the CEC and will continue to fight for the establishment of a real democracy in Armenia," the bloc said in a statement.

The poll results may also do further damage to Armenia’s image among Western governments. An international observer mission led by the Council of Europe’s Parliamentary Assembly (PACE) and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), noted "significant violations" in the counting process in over 30 percent of polling stations visited by its observers. [See related EurasiaNet story].

"While the 25 May parliamentary elections marked improvement over the past presidential election in the campaign and media coverage, they fell short of international standards for democratic elections in a number of key respects," a joint PACE-OSCE statement said.

Just hours after the polls closed May 25, the Justice bloc, which refuses to recognize Kocharian’s legitimacy, had predicted that it would win at least 44 parliament seats and claimed a "convincing victory." As things stand now, the Justice bloc may secure 17 seats at most. Local observers therefore expect the opposition alliance, which most opinion polls had put in the lead during the election campaign, to boycott sessions of Armenia’s new Azgayin Zhoghov (National Assembly.)

As was the case during the presidential election, Armenia’s CEC stands at the center of controversy. There exists widespread distrust of the official turnout figures. The CEC reported three hours before the polls closed that only 30 percent of 2.3 million eligible voters across Armenia had cast ballots. The figure suspiciously shot up to 51 percent within the next few hours, leading the opposition to accuse the authorities of adding over 200,000 "artificial votes" to the final tally.

The official figures were also challenged by the pro-Kocharian Dashnaktsutiun, another major loser of the race. A Dashnaktsutiun member of the CEC pointedly refused to put his signature on the preliminary election results. The nationalist party, which has strong ties with Armenia’s Diaspora communities in countries like France and the United States, had hoped that the election results would boost its domestic political clout. That aim was in line with Kocharian’s strategy of curbing the HHK’s grip on the government.

Dashnaktsutiun is now set to get only a dozen parliament seats, or roughly as many as it has in the outgoing assembly. The HHK, by contrast, will likely hold at least 33 seats and enjoy the backing of dozens of ostensibly independent deputies elected from the 56 "first-past-the-post" parliament seats up for grabs in the May 25 vote. Predictably, HHK candidates did well in these so-called "first-past-the-post" election districts, in which money and government connections have traditionally been very important.

In the event that the HHK needs a coalition partner, it appears that the Prime Minister Markarian’s party now has a weightier partner in Orinats Yerkir which will almost certainly have the second largest faction in the parliament (at least 20 seats) thanks to its strong showing in the first-past-the-post races.

Still, Dashnaktsutiun’s possible refusal to recognize the official election outcome would be a huge blow to their legitimacy. The Yerevan daily "Haykakan Zhamanak" suggested on May 27 that the HHK, which appears certain to keep the post of prime minister, will try hard to placate Dashnaktsutiun by offering it a few ministerial posts. Whether that will work will be clear in the coming days.

Editor’s Note: Emil Danielyan is a Yerevan-based journalist and political analyst.