Azerbaijan, Armenia Probe for Nagorno-Karabakh Peace While on War-Footing

Much of the recent optimism surrounding the Karabakh peace process was generated by May15-16 discussions between Armenian President Robert Kocharian and Azerbaijani leader Ilham Aliyev. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

On May 25, the French representative from the OSCE Minsk Group, which is mediating the talks, confirmed that the peace process was gaining momentum after a long lull. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

"It is important to speed up the process," Bernard Fassier, the French Minsk Group representative, told Azerbaijan's Azad TV on May 25. "There is some fundamental progress, though it is insufficient."

Some political analysts have expressed concern that a breakdown in the latest round of Karabakh negotiations, widely referred to as the Prague Process, could lead to a significant expansion of hostilities. In 2004, Azerbaijani leaders used increasingly bellicose language in discussing the peace process. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

As the latest round of Karabakh talks gained traction, there was a sharp increase in the number of reported ceasefire violations. In late March and early April, skirmishes along the contact line were almost a daily occurrence, leaving at least six dead. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Exchanges of gunfire have been reported even after the latest Kocharian-Aliyev discussions. On May 18, for example, the Azerbaijani Defense Ministry issued a statement saying Armenian and Azerbaijani troops engaged in a firefight during the previous night in the Kohjavend District. No casualties were reported.

With a peace deal far from certain, both countries appear to be bracing for an arms race. Azerbaijani officials have indicated that a portion of the profits generated by the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, which formally opened on May 25, would be used to upgrade Azerbaijani military forces. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

In response, Armenia's Prime Minister Andranik Markarian urged that Armenia boost its defense expenditures as "much as it can," the Arminfo news agency reported May 26.