As Concern Over Afghanistan's Security Mounts, UN Declines to Expand Peacekeepers' Mandate

Despite unsettling indicators on Afghanistan's fragile security climate, the United Nations Security Council has decided against expanding the mandate of an international peacekeeping force. The decision raises questions about the ability of the fast-approaching Loya Jirga, or grand tribal council, to forge a new Afghan political framework.

In recent weeks, the British-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) has refocused its mission from one of a traditional police force to increased efforts to prevent possible terrorist attacks designed to undermine the Loya Jirga, which is scheduled to convene June 10.

On May 23, the Security Council renewed the ISAF mandate for another six months without broadening its mandate beyond Kabul and surrounding areas. In doing so, the Council's resolution stated that "the responsibility for providing security and law and order throughout the country resides with the Afghans themselves." The initial ISAF mandate had been due to expire June 20.

The United States and other influential states have emphasized the need to equip and train a new Afghan army, which would act as the guarantor of domestic security. Officials in Hamid Karzai's Interim Administration in Afghanistan have said an 80,000-strong army is needed, costing about $300 million for the first year. The United States and France are now training initial battalions of 600 troops. US authorities say at least one Afghan battalion will be ready to assume peacekeeping functions before the opening of the Loya Jirga.

But some UN officials argue the Afghan army will not be in any position to promote security across the entire country over the near- and medium-term – a period that is seen as critical to Afghanistan's stabilization hopes.

In a briefing to the Security Council before the vote on ISAF, UN Undersecretary General for Political Affairs Kieren Prendergast said: "I am sure that the international community is fully aware that all its political and financial efforts in support of a new Afghanistan would be seriously compromised by a lack of tangible progress in the security environment."

"We cannot expect a sustained reconstruction process to be launched in Afghanistan without real improvements in security outside Kabul and its environs," Prendergast continued.

The United States has contributed nearly $5 million to ensure the Loya Jirga successfully elects a transitional government that will prepare the country for full-scale national elections within two years.

There is mounting evidence, however, that suggests the ability of the Loya Jirga to fulfill its mission is threatened by the lack of security in Afghanistan. A New York Times report on May 28 – citing the commander of US-led forces in Afghanistan, Maj. Gen. Franklin Hagenbeck – said that al Qaeda and Taliban leaders have regrouped with up to 1,000 non-Afghan militants in neighboring Pakistan, where they are planning terrorist attacks aimed to disrupt the Loya Jirga.

Already, there are disturbing signs that Afghanistan's volatile security environment could undermine the Loya Jirga. For example, a UN official in Afghanistan has said that eight candidates for Loya Jirga seats have been killed in recent weeks. But the official stressed that the UN could not immediately confirm that the killings had any political connection.

Meanwhile, a UN group responsible for monitoring sanctions imposed against the Taliban and al Qaeda said in a May 15 report that Islamic radicals continue to engage in illicit financial dealings that are indicative of future terror operations. The report suggested that al Qaeda has "diversified its financial transactions into trading in gold and precious stones, and is using alternative remittance systems in addition to the formal banking system."

As of March, 144 countries had succeeded in blocking assets worth $103.8 million – half of which was linked to Osama bin Laden and al Qaeda – as part of the war on terrorism. But the UN monitoring group noted that prior to September 11, $500 billion to $1 trillion was laundered globally per year and that it is difficult to differentiate among transactions related to organized crime and those related to terrorist activities, especially via the Internet.

The monitoring group said it was "particularly concerned about the use of the Internet by al Qaeda and many of its associates, not only regarding financial transactions but also in support of their communications, command, control and logistics."

The group also warned that al Qaeda and the Taliban continue to obtain weapons from outside sources, and it called on all countries to step up their efforts against the illegal trade in diamonds and weapons.

Some diplomats cite existing political realities as being the most formidable obstacle blocking the expansion of the 4,500-member ISAF force. Countries besides those already engaged in operations as part of either ISAF or the US-led coalition are not willing to contribute additional forces. For now, diplomats say, the 12,000-strong US-led coalition force is willing to assume limited peacekeeping functions, even as it hunts for al Qaeda militants still in Afghanistan.

As a US diplomat put it, the anti-terrorism coalition has not taken on any greater role, but if conflicts come up, as they have already, between opposing Afghan warlords, US-led forces are willing to "help out" to resolve any problems.

Turkey is set to assume the ISAF leadership role from Britain following the conclusion of the Loya Jirga. But there is concern in Ankara that international interest in maintaining ISAF may flag following the Loya Jirga.

"The continuous strong support of the international community remains crucial for maintaining the present capabilities and efficiency of ISAF," Turkey's UN Ambassador Umit Pamir told the Security Council, adding that the trust fund approved by the Council to support armies participating in ISAF has "yet to become functional."