Low Protest Turnout Hampers Reformers in Kyrgyzstan

According to an official estimate, about 6,000 people turned out for the May 27 rally, held in central Bishkek and sponsored by the For Reform movement, a coalition of political parties and non-governmental organizations. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. A rough count by a EurasiaNet correspondent put the turnout as lower than the official estimate. Organizers had hoped for tens of thousands to show up, aiming to exert increased pressure on President Kurmanbek Bakiyev's administration to pick up the reform pace in the country. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

The May 27 rally was intended as the latest installment of a protest movement launched in April. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive]. The low turnout could have a boomerang effect on reform advocates: instead of forcing Bakiyev to embrace an accelerated reform pace, the president's resolve may harden, and he may well press for constitutional reforms that strengthen executive branch authority at the expense of the legislature.

The For Reform movement issued a 10-point manifesto on May 27 that included a demand that the Bakiyev administration to assent to constitutional reform that turns Kyrgyzstan into a parliamentary republic. It also urged Bakiyev to "conduct a merciless fight against criminals;" to enhance freedom of speech and mass media independence from the administration; to "conduct an efficient fight against corruption; and to compensate Bishkek business owners who suffered losses during the looting associated with Kyrgyzstan's Tulip Revolution in March 2005. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

The administration now appears unlikely to act on the opposition demands. The 24.kg news agency quoted Tursunbek Akun, a Bakiyev aide, as saying the administration was already taking opposition interests into account. "Certain work is being done," Akun said. "Therefore, it [the For Reform movement] should not be aggressive."

Although exposed as not having strong public backing, leaders of the For Reform movement say they have no intention of abandoning their mass protest tactics. One leader, Almazbek Atambayev, vowed that the pro-reform rallies would continue in the fall, if Bakiyev does not act on the movement's 10-point manifesto. "This first and foremost concerns implementing [the parliamentary version of] constitutional reforms," the Russian Itar-Tass quoted Atambayev as saying.