Some in Georgia Worry that the Russian Base Withdrawal Deal Comes with a Catch

Georgian leaders have hailed a deal on the withdrawal of Russian troops from two military bases in Georgia as an "historic event" that clears the way for the normalization of bilateral relations. Some political analysts and opposition politicians in Tbilisi are concerned, however, that President Mikheil Saakashvili's administration paid too high a price to secure Moscow's commitment to take its troops out of Georgia.

Georgian Foreign Minister Salome Zourabichvili and her Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov signed the base accord on May 31, committing Russia to complete the withdrawal process by the end of 2008. According to the agreement text posted on the Russian Foreign Ministry's web site, Moscow will begin closing its base at Akhalkalaki immediately, with at least 40 armored vehicles and 20 tanks to be withdrawn by September 1. Russia is also expected to transfer a tank repair facility to Georgia by September 1. The withdrawal from the Akhalkalaki base is to be completed by the end of 2007. The closure of Russia's other base, in Batumi, will occur at an unspecified point in 2008. Russia's command and control personnel in Georgia will also cease operations in 2008. Both bases are to be delivered to Georgia in "as is" condition.

In addition, the document calls for both Georgia and Russia to seek "additional external sources of financing for the transportation costs" connected with the Russian withdrawal. The accord also contains vague language concerning the creation of a Georgian-Russian Anti-Terrorist Center, to be "formalized by a separate document," as well as a bilateral commitment to conclude a pact regulating joint border issues "as soon as possible."

Tbilisi and Moscow had haggled over the Russian troop withdrawal since the 1999 OSCE summit in Istanbul. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. At a May 30 news conference, Saakashvili said the bilateral accord will end "the 200-year presence of Russian troops in Georgia." He went on to say that one of the most "painful" issues hampering Tbilisi's ties with Moscow – Russia's two remaining bases in Georgia -- had now been cleared away, raising hopes for "close, friendly relations." Saakashvili also sought to reassure the ethnic Armenian community concentrated near the Akhalkalaki base, which has been the main source of employment for area residents. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive]. "We have already launched the rehabilitation of roads, schools and launched social programs," Saakashvili said. "We are also ready to recruit [local] personnel ... for the Georgian army."

It was what Saakashvili didn't mention about the pact -- specifically the creation of the joint anti-terrorism center -- that had some observers and politicians in Georgia feeling uneasy. Before the text of the accord had been made public, Tina Gogueliani, a political analyst with the International Center for Conflict and Negotiations, said that some people worried that the accord contained loopholes potentially enabling Russia to maintain a military presence in Georgia. "[You can't] exclude the possibility that there is something the public will not like in this document," Gogueliani said.

The English language daily, The Georgian Messenger, published an article June 1 in which seven of the nine people interviewed said they were suspicious about the center's intentions. "There is no difference whether the bases will be withdrawn from the country or not if there will be an anti-terrorist center," said Tea Todua, a lawyer who was quoted in the Messenger story.

The text of the agreement states that an "agreed upon portion of [Russian] military personnel and material-technical facilities and infrastructure from [the Batumi base] would be used in the interest" of the joint anti-terrorism center. Tiko Mzhavanadze, a press secretary for the New Right opposition group, voiced concern that the status quo could end up being preserved. "If the [anti-terrorism] center will be Russian, we have traded the old bases for new [military] equipment," she said in a phone interview with EurasiaNet. "And that will be even worse."

Irakli Menagarishvili, a former foreign minister who now is the director of the Strategic Research Center, cautioned that it is too soon to jump to any conclusions. "It is hard to say anything concrete at this time," he said in a phone interview. "There is nothing decided, or we don't know anything yet, about the center except for the title." He added that the center could assume a variety of forms, ranging from an analytical-research think tank to an armed unit. "Those are two different things-and actually any number of variations could exist between them," he said. "If it is the first version, it could be acceptable for Georgia. But the second is completely unacceptable. That is like exchanging the bases for the same thing with a different name."

Zourabichvili, speaking at a May 31 news conference, sought to dispel fears that the deal would allow Russian to retain a significant military presence in Georgia. "The anti-terrorist center will not represent a new base. It will be a joint center, which will accept all decisions jointly, with the participation of the Georgian side," Zourabichvili said, adding that "the existence of this anti-terrorism center is in Georgia's interests as well."

The opposition party spokeswoman, Mzhavanadze, said that to ensure Russia does not wield undue influence in the planned anti-terrorism center, participation should be expanded. "If there is going to be an anti-terrorism center in Georgia, [it] should be three-, or four-sided; not just Georgian and Russian [members], but also American and possibly European."

Zourabichvili said on May 31 that substantive negotiations concerning the anti-terrorism center have not commenced. "As far as I know, Russia adopted one document that we have not received yet," she said. "We have enough time for negotiations and there is no reason to hurry. We should think together about what we want and how we want [to receive it]."

Georgia's National Security Council will be the lead agency responsible for guiding Georgian negotiators on the creation of the anti-terrorism center. Davit Gunashvili, the press officer for the NSC, said very little has been decided to date. "I can only tell you that the Georgian side will only support an analytical-information gathering [center]," he said. "As we know no weapons or large armies can defeat terrorism." He added that while there is no date set for the negotiations, both the NSC and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs will be involved.