Azerbaijan Adopts Cautious Approach on Ethnic Azeri Protests in Iran

Azerbaijan's government has been conspicuously quiet about the recent rioting in neighboring Iran involving ethnic Azeris. Baku appears concerned that an overt sign of support for the Iranian Azeri protesters would prompt Tehran to attempt to destabilize Azerbaijan.

Rioting began in the northern Iranian city of Tabriz on May 19 after a local newspaper published a cartoon depicting a cockroach speaking Azeri. Despite official moves to punish the newspaper and its editors, Azeri discontent rapidly spread across northern Iran, prompting fierce clashes between protesters and security forces. For example, the Turan news agency reported May 28 that roughly 100 Azeris had been killed in the town of Sulduz since the start of the disturbances. As the protests spread, Azeris began voicing demands for better social and economic conditions, as well as greater political rights. Iranian leaders claim that the unrest is being stirred up by foreign governments intent on undermining Tehran's nuclear research program. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Azerbaijani officials in Baku have pointedly refrained from criticizing Iranian government actions, or from sending signals that could be interpreted as endorsing the ethnic Azeri protesters' demands. Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry spokesman Tahir Tagizada emphasized that the protests in northern Iran were "an internal affair of the Islamic Republic," according to a May 30 report distributed by the Turan news agency. Tagizada indicated that Baku was satisfied with the Iranian government's handling of events, as well as Tehran's commitment to ensuring the civil rights of ethnic Azeris.

Meanwhile, the Russian-language newspaper Zerkalo published a commentary May 24 castigating several opponents of President Ilham Aliyev's administration, including Musavat Party leader Isa Gambar, who have offered public support for the Azeri protesters. The commentary called on the opposition leaders to "keep their mouths shut." The newspaper added that Azerbaijan's geopolitical interests would suffer if Tehran determines that Baku is aiding or abetting the Azeri protesters. "The time is not yet ripe for mass protests by Azeris," the commentary concluded.

Many experts in Baku worry about Tehran's capacity to use its religious clout to undermine stability in Azerbaijan. Iran is especially wary of Azerbaijan's strong strategic relationship with the United States. Prior to President Aliyev's late April visit to Washington, Iranian officials warned that Tehran would retaliate against Azerbaijan if Baku agreed to support US efforts to increase military pressure on Iran. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Given Tehran's evident conviction that foreign forces are fanning the ethnic Azeri protests, some political analysts believe Iran would resort to destabilizing Azerbaijan – through various means, possibly including the use of terrorism -- if Aliyev's administration created the impression of backing ethnic Azeris protesters.

Azerbaijan, like Iran, comprises mainly Sh'ia Muslims, and since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Tehran has provided considerable assistance aimed at encouraging the revival of Islam in its northern neighbor. Polling data released in early May confirmed that the number of Azerbaijanis who are practicing Muslims is growing in Azerbaijan. The data, compiled by the Baku-based Center for Religious Studies and the Irali youth group, at the same time indicated that Azerbaijanis preferred "Turkish-style moderate Islam" to the Iranian model.

The Azerbaijani government appears increasingly concerned about the spread of Islamic radicalism in the country. In an April 11 interview broadcast on ANS TV, Rafiq Aliyev, the head of the State Committee for Religious Organizations, said a new radical religious group had begun operating in the country, adding that it posed a serious threat to stability. The group, dubbed the Brotherhood, had succeeded in recruiting several politicians, Aliyev alleged. He also asserted that the Brotherhood had imported literature that urged an overhaul of Azerbaijan's existing political order. "Most of those books run counter to the secular principles of the Azerbaijani state. At the same time, these books are meant to foster a religious revolution in Azerbaijan. These are translated books from Iran," Aliyev said.

About a week after Rafiq Aliyev's interview, two high-profile court cases resulted in convictions for suspected Islamic militants. On April 18, Azerbaijan's Court for Serious Crimes handed out sentences ranging from nine to 15 years to seven purported members of the Jamaat al-Muwahhidin group. The next day, 16 alleged Islamic radicals were found guilty of undergoing illegal military training with the intent to fight Russian forces in Chechnya. The ringleader of the group received a life sentence, while the others were sent to prison for up to 10 years.

Some prominent experts in Azerbaijan, including Arif Yunusov, a political analyst affiliated with the Institute of Peace and Democracy, generally share the government's concern about the Islamic radical threat. But Yunusov questions whether the government's tactics in combating radicalism can be effective. "Our law-enforcement bodies, especially the Ministry of National Security, conduct their operations in order to play up to the United States," Yunusov said. "They [security officials] investigate the situation at mosques, and in the political realm.

"But active Islamist groups tend to [operate] in the shadows," Yunusov emphasized.