EurasiaNet Eurasia Insight - Opposition Organizes Political Protests Across Georgia

EURASIA INSIGHT

OPPOSITION ORGANIZES POLITICAL PROTESTS ACROSS GEORGIA
Irakly Areshidze 6/03/03

A political dispute over the composition of Georgia’s Central Election Commission prompted opposition leaders to organize demonstrations across Georgia on June 3. Protesters are calling for measures designed to ensure free and fair parliamentary elections later this year. President Eduard Shevardnadze has condemned his political opponents, claiming they are attempting to "trigger mechanisms of managed chaos" in Georgia.

A crowd estimated at up to 8,000 people gathered June 3 outside the Georgian parliament building in Tbilisi and demonstrations were reported in many of the country’s other major cities and towns. Intensive coverage by independent television channels, including Rustavi-2, Sun and Imedi, helped swell the ranks of the protesters throughout the day. Organizers said the protests would continue June 4.

The parliament election is scheduled for November 2. Many political experts in Georgia say the outcome of the battle over the Central Election Commission’s composition may be the most important aspect of the entire campaign. The CEC, along with election commissions at the precinct level, will be in charge of administering the November election. Opposition leaders are demanding a reorganization of election commissions on all levels, saying such action is necessary to reduce the chances of fraud during the parliamentary vote.

Irregularities have often marred elections across the Caucasus and Central Asia since the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union. Most recently, international election monitors noted serious flaws in Armenia’s recent parliament and presidential elections. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Many opposition leaders are concerned that pro-Shevardnadze political forces � which dominate the current parliament even though opinion polls show their popularity to be near an all-time low � are angling to rig the upcoming parliament vote. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive]. At present, the CEC is dominated by Shevardnadze backers.

Parliament has spent the last month debating the CEC composition question. In turn, the CEC deadlock has been the main obstacle to the passage of a new, more transparent electoral code. On June 2, leaders of five opposition parties spent over six hours negotiating on the election commission issue with State Minister Avtandil Jorbenadze, who serves as the campaign chairman of Shevardnadze’s "For New Georgia" electoral bloc.

Shevardnadze supporters have modified their initial demand that they dominate the CEC, but continue to seek controlling influence over election commissions. Opposition leaders initially wanted parliament to disband the existing CEC and then appoint a new commission in which each viable political party or movement in Georgia would have one representative. The opposition also sought a similar arrangement for the composition of the electoral commissions at the precinct level. While the CEC approves the final vote count, actual counting (and, as a result, fraud) takes place on a local level. As a result, for the opposition, precinct commissions are just as important as the CEC.

The latest CEC plan presented by the opposition would give the president and parties that support him about a third of the commission seats � either six out of 16, or five out of 15 members. Other parties would appoint the rest. On May 30, parliament, in which pro-government forces can muster a majority, responded by rejecting the move to disband the current CEC, and drew up a counterproposal that would effectively dilute opposition influence in the CEC.

Jorbenadze convened the June 2 negotiating session in the hopes of averting the opposition demonstrations. The two sides ultimately reached a compromise on CEC membership with eight of the 22 members to be appointed by pro-Shevardnadze forces. However, Jorbenadze rejected the opposition’s call for similar composition of precinct commissions. The breakdown in talks prompted opposition leaders to press ahead with their protest plans.

Shevardnadze is under intense pressure from the United States and Western European governments to support a democratic electoral process, and ensure a fair vote count in November. US President George W. Bush has sent repeated letters to the Georgian president calling for democratic elections, most recently in mid-May, in connection with Georgia’s Independence Day on May 26. Similar messages have been delivered by American and other Western political representatives, including NATO Secretary-General Lord George Robertson.

In a radio interview June 2, Shevardnadze declared that he would do his utmost to ensure a fair election and repeated his earlier vow that he would not be a candidate in the next presidential election, scheduled for 2005. Referring to the political violence in Tbilisi in early 1990s, Shevardnadze assailed opposition leaders for wanting to "bring people out on to the streets."

"People remember very well the consequences of the practice of resolving problems of state importance at street rallies," Shevardnadze said. "It cost Georgia very dearly, and I do not think there is a need for this to recur."

He also sought to turn the tables on his opponents, suggesting that they feared a fair vote. "I am more and more convinced that those who constantly speak of the likelihood of authorities rigging the elections are actually afraid of the free choice that the population will make in the elections," Shevardnadze said.

Opposition supporters are dismissive of Shevardnadze’s comments, suggesting the president is resorting to scare-tactics in an attempt to retain power. Some experts say that while Shevardnadze will not run for re-election, he is keen to hand-pick his successor. Accordingly, Shevardnadze is seeking to ensure that pro-presidential political forces retain their parliamentary majority, observers say. They add that, given the current lack of popular support for pro-presidential parties, the president may be tempted to engage in electoral fraud in an attempt to realize his political-succession plan. Under such a scenario, it would be vital for Shevardnadze backers to control central and precinct-level election commissions.

Street protests have the potential to frustrate government plans, observers say, citing the fallout from the November 2001 demonstrations against the attempted closure of the Rustavi-2 television station. Those protests forced Shevardnadze to reshuffle his government. Political analysts also say continued international pressure could force the government to agree to broader political representation on election commissions.

Editor�s Note: Irakly Areshidze is a Visiting Fellow at the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute of the Johns Hopkins University School for Advanced International Studies in Washington. Views expressed in this analysis are those of the author and not of the institutions with which the author is affiliated.

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