Namangani a Presence in Tajikistan, Even if IMU Can't be Seen

In the Tavil Dara and Karategin Valley regions of Tajikistan, Juma Namangani and his Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) are much discussed, though not seen. Indeed, officials and many local residents say they haven't seen an IMU fighter in the area in two years. Nevertheless, the mere threat of IMU incursions is causing hardships, as border restrictions have cut farmers off from lucrative markets.

Jahongir Malikov -- commander of the militia, or police forces, in the Tavil-Dara region – would not exclude the possibility of an IMU incursion this summer, but he dismissed the notion that IMU fighters were already hiding out in the area. He said police have been closely monitoring all movements and have not seen any sign of Namangani's IMU. Local militia forces are prepared to resist an IMU incursion and have established defensive positions along the region's only road leading to Kyrgyzstan, he added.

Malikov's assertions are supported by local residents. In numerous interviews, local farmers insisted that the IMU hadn't been active in the area in approximately two years. They said Uzbek militants had temporarily settled in the region after fleeing Uzbekistan to avoid persecution over their religious beliefs. But the militants ended up being forced from the area in 1999, in part because of a bombing campaign conducted by Uzbekistan's air force. An internecine struggle, which reportedly left at least 16 militants dead, also hastened their departure from Tajikistan, local residents add.

Local residents have a reputation of being sympathetic to Namangani. One resident of Tavil-Dara, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said opinions were shaped during Tajikistan's 1992-97 civil war, when Namangani and other Uzbek Islamists fought alongside United Tajik Opposition (UTO) forces. Tavil-Dara was a UTO stronghold during the war.

Meanwhile, the chairman of the Tajikabad region, Sidzhouddin Isroilov, said that rumors about IMU activity, along with assertions that government control over Tajikistan's eastern regions are tenuous, are creating difficulties for the local economy. "Potential investors are scared to come here, let alone seek cooperation (in local projects)," Isroilov said.

Isroilov also complained that the Namangani rumors had effectively cut off farmers from markets in neighboring Uzbekistan. In response to the IMU threat, Tashkent has tightened border controls, introducing tariffs as high as $300 for trucks importing goods, including agricultural products, into Uzbekistan. The high tariffs have brought Tajik agricultural exports to a virtual standstill. At the same time, it has caused a glut of produce in some regions of Tajikistan, drastically reducing farmers' profits.

According to Kobiljon Burhonov, a businessman from the Jirgatal region, all vehicles from Tajikistan are thoroughly searched at the borders of neighboring countries, causing long waits for merchants. On many occasions, the border procedures cause such a delay that the fruits and vegetables spoil before they reach their intended markets. Burhonov added that a rise in drug trafficking throughout the region is another factor in the tightening of border controls.

Farmers in eastern Tajikistan have had to reorient themselves, and now many sell their produce to Kyrgyz merchants in exchange for flour, macaroni, sugar and other goods. Kyrgyz merchant Davlatbek Zikirov -- who was born in Tajikistan and lived there until 1993 -- is frequent visitor to the region, and is confident that the IMU won't cause too much trouble this summer. Already, he has traded about 50 tons of flour to local farmers and will receive potatoes, apples, pears and wool from the farmers in exchange this fall. He explained that there are dozens of Kyrgyz merchants like himself making deals in eastern Tajikistan. None of them, Zikirov stressed, would take the financial risk if they were not sure about profitability of their dealings.