Negotiations on US Military Base in Kyrgyzstan Raise Transparency Concerns

The US strategic position in Kyrgyzstan seems safe for now. But recent negotiations on new lease terms governing an American air base outside of Bishkek have prompted concerns among Kyrgyz civil society activists, who say a lack of transparency surrounding the process could fuel government corruption.

Speculation mounted in early 2006 that Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiyev might demand the US withdrawal from the base at Manas if Washington did not agree to a massive rent increase by June 1. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Kyrgyz and American officials met in Bishkek May 31-June 1 to discuss a revision of the existing lease. The talks were conducted behind closed doors, and both sides remained tight-lipped about the substance of the discussions, in particular the numbers being bandied about.

In the end, no agreement was reached. But Kyrgyz officials announced that negotiations would continue "in the near future." The generally low-key rhetoric employed by Bishkek indicated that the United State was not in immediate danger of being booted out of its lone remaining base in Central Asia. []. A Kyrgyz Foreign Ministry statement expressed hope that the sides would eventually agree to a "mutually beneficial agreement and to resolve all outstanding issues once and for all."

Beyond the rent issue, Kyrgyz officials say they are concerned about environmental protection, taxation and the conduct of the estimated 800 military personnel stationed at the base. The Foreign Ministry statement indicated that the two sides had already agreed on changes in several areas, including a commitment to establish a joint commission that would "investigate incidents" involving American military personnel.

The secretive nature of the talks left civil society activists feeling disgruntled. Not even parliamentary representatives were permitted to observe the negotiations, and news about the discussions was tightly controlled by the presidential administration. One non-governmental organization, Civilians Against Corruption, sent Bakiyev an open letter calling for the next round of negotiations to be more transparent. Aspects of the talks concerning the rent should be subject to public scrutiny. The main aim is to ensure that all funds paid by the United States go to "filling the state budget" and not "to enriching a group of officials and members of their families," the open letter added.

Since assuming the presidency in 2005, Bakiyev has faced vigorous criticism over his personnel policy, through which he has appointed family members and close associates to important governmental positions. He has also been widely assailed for not taking a strong anti-corruption stance. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

MPs have spent a fair amount of time in 2006 wrestling with Bakiyev over the division of powers between the legislative and executive branches. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Despite legislative-executive tension, some MPs indicated that they weren't upset about their exclusion from the base talks. "I wouldn't dramatize the fact that a parliamentary committee was not included in the negotiations," MP Melis Eshimkanov said in a television interview. "I am more concerned about the issue of transparency. Where will the money [from the rent] go? What is the distribution mechanism? Will the entire sum make it to the state budget?"

Other government critics have suggested that the Bakiyev's administration's strengthened ties with Moscow are exerting influence on the base negotiations. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Russian leaders do not hide their desire to see the termination of the US' strategic presence in Central Asia. As the base talks got underway, however, Prime Minister Feliks Kulov denied that geopolitics was figuring into the talks.

According to a Bishkek-based political analyst Sadyrbek Cherikov, Kyrgyzstan and the United States remain keenly interested in reaching an agreement that would preserve the US presence at Manas. At present, both sides are simply angling for the best possible lease terms.

The stakes are just as high for Bakiyev as they are for the United States, Cherikov added. While US officials may be desperate, even if they don't act so, to retain a strategic foothold in Central Asia, Bakiyev is equally in need of an American base, although for different reasons. "The [rent hike] ultimatum issued by the president was motivated by the disastrous condition of the Kyrgyz economy," Cherikov said, adding that poor policy choices made by Bakiyev exacerbated the situation, and backed the president into a corner. The administration is now in desperate need of new revenue streams, as the rampant crime and corruption that currently plague Kyrgyzstan have eroded confidence in the government and prompted a significant increase in tax evasion.

"As a result of the unprofessional political course since March 24, 2005, [the day of Kyrgyzstan's Tulip Revolution] demanding full payment of taxes is impossible, as businessmen are ready to take their supporters to pickets and rallies for any cause and at any moment – which would further aggravate the political turmoil in the country," Cherikov said. "In this situation, President Bakiyev needs an external source of financing."

The amount demanded by Bakiyev from the United States for a lease renewal – $207 million – would comprise up to one-third of the Kyrgyz state budget. Cherikov said he believed that Bakiyev would settle for less, rather than see the talks collapse and the state receive nothing. But no one other than Bakiyev seems to know where his tipping point lies.

"President Bakiyev will be satisfied only with a positive result of the negotiations. Any other outcome would be a catastrophe for the Kyrgyz leader," Cherikov said. "The American partners in the negotiations understand this and will seek to reduce the rental fee. At the same time, they also need to maintain at least one military base in Central Asia and will not leave the Kyrgyz leader [and his country] empty-handed."