A crowded field is helping to boost the electoral hopes of Ali Akhbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, Iran's most skilled politician who is vying to regain the presidency in the June 17 election. During the campaign, Rafsanjani has at times acted like an incumbent. On June 8, for example, he called on the United States to make a "goodwill gesture" by unfreezing Iranian assets.
In all, eight candidates are competing in the June 17 presidential vote. If the top candidate fails to garner a majority of the vote, the two leading vote-getters will face off in a second-round of voting in late June.
Hardliners have been in the political ascendancy in Iran since the parliamentary elections in February 2004. [For background see the Eurasia insight archive]. However, the conservative's ability to capture the executive branch, to go along with their already existing control of the legislature and judiciary, has been hampered by a lack of unity.
Four conservative candidates -- all of whom have military or security backgrounds remain in the race, unable to set aside personal ambition in order to produce a single candidate. The four conservatives seeking the presidency are: Ali Larijani, until recently the head of the national radio and TV; Mahmud Ahmadinejad, current mayor of Tehran; Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, the former head of national police force; and Mohsen Rezaii, who headed the Revolutionary Guards during the country's 1982-88 war with Iraq.
Rafsanjani, who served two terms as president from 1989-1997, has traditionally been identified as a conservative-leaning politician. But, true to his pragmatic political style, he has cast himself as a pro-business centrist during this campaign.
Results of a recent opinion survey, conducted by the Iran Student Polling Agency, showed that Rafsanjani's support has slipped slightly from a high of almost 35 percent down to 28 percent. However, that figure is roughly equal to the combined level of support for the four conservative candidates. The second most popular candidate was Qalibaf with 14 percent, according to the student poll, which was conducted May 31-June 1 and is based on over 4,700 interviews. No margin of error was cited in the poll.
There are three reform-leaning candidates in the campaign. One, Mustafa Moin, a former education minister in incumbent president Mohammad Khatami's administration, came in third in the student's poll with just over 10 percent support. The other two reform-minded candidates are Mehdi Karroubi, a former parliament speaker, and Moshen Mehralizadeh.
The campaign has so far confounded expectations of a conservative victory. Political analysts in Tehran say there exists a great deal of disaffection among the conservatives' traditional electoral base, with growing discontent over the general performance of the conservative-dominated parliament. As a result, a key conservative group known as Isargaran (The Society of Those who Make Sacrifices) has split into several factions, each supporting a different conservative candidate.
Conservatives are concerned that a Rafsanjani presidency would critically erode their control over Iranian politics. Yet, the divisions within the conservative camp have helped Rafsanjani carve out a distinct political profile for this election. He has stated that, if elected, he would pursue populist policies designed to loosen government control over the economy in order to stimulate job creation. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].
On June 1, Rafsanjani released a 14-point platform, in which he championed large-scale privatization and a policy course emphasizing Iranian integration into the global economy. Rafsanjani's platform also stressed social liberalization, calling for acceptance of a "variety of lifestyles." In the foreign policy sphere, the platform referred to the possibility of the normalization of US-Iranian relations, calling for closer ties with all governments "that are not hostile."
In a recent interview published by the Jomhuri Islami newspaper, Rafsanjani struck a presidential tone in declaring that if the United States released frozen Iranian assets, he would take action to open direct negotiations aimed at the normalization of relations, which were severed following the 1979 Islamic revolution. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive].
"The United States has still not responded. But if it does respond, I will speak to [Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei] and we can start to negotiate," Rafsanjani said. He went on to say that the leader of the Islamic revolution, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, expressed a written desire before his death in 1989 for better relations with the United States.
Ayatollah Khamenei, the current Supreme Leader, is reportedly a strong political opponent of Rafsanjani. A decree issued by Ayatollah Khamenei to reinstate two reformist candidates -- Moin and Mehralizadeh, who had earlier been banned from campaigning by the Guardians Council, an unelected clerical oversight body -- was interpreted by some political analysts as a move to dilute Rafsanjani's pool of potential electoral supporters.
Analysts will be paying close attention to the turnout figure in the election. A strong voter turnout could help the eventual the winner implement his political agenda. Recent elections in Iran have been marked by widespread voter apathy, a factor that has helped create the existing political gridlock. Some analysts say that the presidential election, especially if it, as now widely expected, produces a Rafsanjani victory, could widen rifts within the Iranian leadership at a time when the country is facing daunting domestic and foreign challenges. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].
Editor's note:
Kamal Nazer Yasin is a pseudonym for a freelance journalist specializing in Iranian affairs.
