Armenian President In Control As Opposition Protests Fizzle Out

Armenia's President Robert Kocharian appears to have warded off a challenge to his authority, surviving a two-month opposition protest campaign that aimed to force his resignation. Even though the protests failed to attract large numbers of Armenians, some political analysts in Yerevan say the opposition campaign inflicted considerable political damage on Kocharian.

Since April, opposition leaders had promised "decisive action" against Kocharian. At the most recent street protest June 4 in central Yerevan, however, the opposition acknowledged that it lacked sufficient backing to fulfill its aim, and abandoned plans to march on Kocharian's residence. "We believe that we are not yet ready to carry out actions needed for achieving our final victory," a leading member of the opposition Justice bloc, Albert Bazeyan, told a thinning crowd.

The unrest stemmed from the February-March 2003 presidential election in which Kocharian secured a second term amid allegations of vote rigging. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. His opponents still refuse to recognize the legitimacy of his reelection and were unsuccessful in a 2003 attempt to have the voting results invalidated. Kocharian critics later decided to embrace protest tactics, striving to imitate the success of Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili, who came to power amid the "Rose Revolution" in Tbilisi. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

The opposition unveiled the protest strategy in early April. The most critical moment occurred early on in the protest campaign, as riot police, during the early hours of April 13, dispersed opposition protesters as they marched towards Kocharian's official residence in Yerevan. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive].

The leaders of Armenia's two main opposition groups, the Justice bloc and the National Unity Party (AMK), have since continued the unsanctioned rallies in the city center. The protests have flagged in recent weeks as many opposition supporters grew increasingly frustrated over the lack of "decisive action."

Bazeyan and other opposition leaders said they will continue to rally supporters in the capital to keep up pressure on the authorities. "There will be no stability in the country as long as Kocharian remains in power because stability and Kocharian are incompatible things," the most radical of them, Aram Sarkisian, said.

But few observers believe that demonstrations attended by several thousand people will pose a serious threat to the ruling regime. Given the effective end of the protest campaign, political analysts are examining the question of why the Armenian opposition failed to mobilize what one of its leaders described as a "critical mass" of demonstrators.

In the view of Aghasi Yenokian, director of the independent Armenian Center for Political and International Studies, Justice and the AMK never had a clear action plan. He said the opposition also lost popular trust due to its inability to successfully press its appeal over the presidential election tally. "The opposition has shown on several occasions that it can let the people down at any moment," Yenokian said.

Still, some local political experts believe that the protests, which provoked the worst-ever government crackdown on the Armenian opposition, dealt a blow to Kocharian's legitimacy at home and abroad. That, they say, could open new cracks in the country's shaky governing coalition, rendering the medium- to long-term political situation in the country unpredictable.

"Armenia is entering a period of political apathy where there is no effective government and [no] effective opposition," said a recent commentary in the pro-opposition daily Haykakan Zhamanak.

Authorities have maintained throughout that the opposition protest campaign was unconstitutional. On June 8, one of Kocharian's top allies declared victory in the political struggle. "The opposition has failed to achieve its goals," Prime Minister Andranik Markarian said.

Throughout the crisis, Kocharian stressed that Armenia's strong security apparatus ensured that a repetition of the "Georgian scenario" would not occur in Yerevan. At the same time, Kocharian has sought to placate building popular frustration.

Kocharian has long tried to cast himself as the custodian of a fast-growing economy. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. The benefits of economic growth, though, are not evenly distributed in Armenia, as many in the country continue to grapple with poverty. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive]. In recent weeks, Kocharian has expressed renewed interest in improving living conditions. His schedule in early June, for example, was full of meetings, heavily publicized by state-controlled television channels, with officials at all levels of government to examine issues ranging from suspected corruption in high school graduation exams to patchy supplies of drinking water.

In addition to the high-profile effort to address popular concerns, authorities have cracked down on the opposition, arresting hundreds of government critics. The crackdown continued even after strong criticism voiced by the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe in late April. Since then, a 24-year-old man has been sentenced to an 18-month jail term for hurling a plastic bottle at a riot police officer during the April 12-13 events. Four other opposition activists received up to 15-month prison sentences stemming from their participation in another protest.

Although Kocharian is the winner of the latest round, experts believe the political bout will continue. Yenokian, for one, viewed the deepening intra-governmental infighting as a source of political turmoil down the road. "The processes should not be considered over," the analyst said. "They may well have a continuation."