Government Reshuffle in Kazakhstan Gives Nazarbayev Maneuverability on Key Issues

The Kazakhstani parliament on June 13 approved Daniyal Akhmetov as the country's new prime minister. The appointment, according to political observers, provides President Nursultan Nazarbayev with broader room for maneuver on key domestic issues.

Akhmetov replaces Imangali Tasmagambetov, who unexpectedly tendered his resignation June 11. In announcing his departure, Tasmagambetov cited opposition to a controversial land reform bill, which authorizes the privatization of land in a way that critics charge would overwhelmingly favor the wealthy. The outgoing prime minister also claimed that results of a parliamentary vote of confidence in May were falsified to show that the legislature supported the government's land privatization plan.

In comments published by the Navigator on-line newspaper June 12, the speaker of the lower house of parliament, Zharmakhan Tuyakbai, disputed Tasmagambetov's account, asserting that the resignation had been "artificially created." That view was endorsed by a senator, Tasbai Simambayev, who told Kazakhstan Today that "nobody falsified anything" in the parliamentary confidence vote.

By all indications Nazarbayev was largely satisfied with Tasmagambetov's stewardship of the government. Indeed, the president appointed the former premier to a new post – state secretary. At the same time, observers say that reshuffling the government at this time gives Nazarbayev increased flexibility in handling key domestic issues, including the land privatization question, development of the oil and gas sector and inter-ethnic relations.

Over the near term, Tasmagambetov's departure opens up the possibility of further revision of the land code. A joint session of parliament is expected to convene in late June to revisit the issue, according to local media. In seeking revisions, the Nazarbayev administration may be trying to derail an opposition effort to hold a nationwide referendum on the land privatization issue.

Speaking in parliament June 13, Nazarbayev expressed a desire "to intensify the pace of social and economic development," according to the Interfax-Kazakhstan news agency. Observers say Akhmetov possesses stronger management skills than Tasmagambetov, and thus would stand a better chance of accelerating the reform pace. In addition, Akhmetov, who was serving as governor of the northern Pavlodar region at the time of his appointment, reportedly has maintained a good relationship with Russian-speakers in the region.

During his 18 months in office, Tasmagambetov developed a reputation as a nationalist, especially in economic matters. Tasmagambetov had a prickly relationship with Western oil conglomerates involved in the development of Kazakhstan's natural resources. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

At present, Kazakhstan is involved in a dispute with Western oil giants – including ExxonMobil, Royal Dutch Shell and Agip – over the development of the Kashagan oil field, which is estimated to contain at least 9 billion barrels of oil. Nazarbayev wants the oil to start flowing by 2005, while Western oil executives prefer to start operations in 2006 or 2007. Nazarbayev, in an interview with the Financial Times, threatened to impose economic penalties on Western oil companies if they failed to meet a 2005 production deadline. The two sides are also sparring over taxation. Tasmagambetov's departure "may appease" Western oil companies and create a more favorable atmosphere for the resolution of the Kashagan dispute, said a Washington, DC-based expert on Kazakhstani developments.

At the same time, a new prime minister potentially gives Nazarbayev a way to make face-saving policy reversals, the expert indicated. "The fact is that the government doesn't have lots of influence in Kazakhstan. Decisions are made by Nazarbayev," the expert said.

An Almaty-based political observer, meanwhile, believes Akhmetov's appointment could have important implications for the ongoing domestic political struggle Akhmetov's reputation in administration circles reportedly benefited from the outcome of a special parliamentary election in December 2002, in which the wife of jailed opposition leader Galimzhan Zhakiyanov went down to defeat. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. In the days before that election, Karlygash Zhakiyanova complained that the regional administration, which Akhmetov headed at the time, had used smear tactics to undermine her campaign. According to the Almaty observer, Nazarbayev may count on Akhmetov to be the administration's point man for the upcoming the 2004 parliamentary election.