Tajikistan Shuns United States, Tilts Toward Russia

Russia appears to be the winner in the geopolitical struggle for Tajikistan. At a recent summit, Moscow secured a dominant economic and military position in Tajikistan for the foreseeable future.

Tajik experts were caught off their guard by the results of the June 4 summit between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Tajik counterpart Imomali Rahmonov. In exchange for Moscow writing off of approximately $300 million in debt, Tajikistan granted Russia the rights to the Nurek space surveillance center. In addition, Russian companies will participate in the development of Tajik hydro-electric projects, and Russian border guards will remain in charge of guarding Tajikistan's frontier with Afghanistan at least until 2006.

Just a few months ago, the Tajik-Russian special relationship seemed to be approaching the breaking point, as Rahmonov drifted towards a closer strategic partnership with the United States. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive]. In late April, for example, the Tajik president announced the imminent departure of Russian border guards from Tajikistan. "The border forces of Tajikistan, as a sign of the country's independence, will gradually take over the protection of all the sections of the Tajik border," Rahmonov said in his April 30 state-of-the-nation speech. During the summit, however, it was Rahmonov who specifically requested that the Russian border guards remain for at least two more years, Kremlin officials emphasized.

Rahmonov also made an abrupt shift on the Nurek facility, which is considered one of the most advanced space monitoring stations in the former Soviet Union. Previously, Tajikistan reportedly sought $50 million from Russia for leasing rights for a to-be negotiated term. But at the June summit, Rahmonov virtually gave the Nurek facility away, allowing Russia to maintain the center as long as it liked, free of charge. Many local experts now expect Russia to establish a permanent military base in Tajikistan.

As part of the debt settlement plan, Russia will now become an investor in energy projects. For instance, on June 9, Anatoly Chubais, the chairman of the Russian power giant Unified Energy Systems, announced that that Russia, Tajikistan and Iran would hold talks on a joint effort to build the Sangtuda power station, the RIA-Novosti news agency reported.

Some political observers say Rahmonov's sudden shift reflects Tajikistan's growing disenchantment with US policy in Central Asia. In particular, Tajik officials are reportedly disappointed over the level Washington's direct assistance to Dushanbe. They also worry that US-led stabilization efforts in neighboring Afghanistan are flagging, posing a serious security threat for the entire region.

Other analysts believe Putin coerced Rahmonov into changing his mind by threatening to forcibly return thousand of Tajik labor migrants now working in Russia. Such action could be politically destabilizing for Rahmonov as many Tajiks depend on remittances sent from friends and relatives working in Russia. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Dadajan Ataullah, a Tajik dissident journalist in Moscow, maintained that Rahmonov cast his lot with Russia in order to secure his own power in Tajikistan. Tajikistan is bracing for parliamentary elections in 2005 and a presidential vote the year after. Ataullah suggested that Rahmonov was taking preventive action to ensure that Russia would not provide support to the president's political opponents in those elections.