Eurasia Insight:
SCO MEMBERS EXPECTED TO PUNT ON THE ISSUE OF IRANIAN MEMBERSHIP
Sergei Blagov: 6/14/06

Heads of state have started to gather in China for a summit meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, scheduled to open June 15. The summit's most controversial attendee is likely to be Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization comprises China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. But representatives of neighboring states, including Ahmadinejad, Afghan President Hamid Karzai and Pakistani leader Gen. Pervez Musharraf, are participating as observers.

Musharraf and Kazakhstani President Nursultan Nazarbayev arrived in Shanghai late on June 13, the official Chinese news agency Xinhua reported. The Shanghai summit will mark the first time an Iranian head of state has attended the gathering. Iran, which is currently locked in a dispute with the international community over its nuclear research program, gained SCO observer status in 2005. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Ahmadinejad is due to arrive in Shanghai on June 14, the official IRNA news agency said. Prior to his departure officials in Tehran reiterated their desire to strengthen Iran's connection to the SCO. While China and Russia, as members of the United Nations Security Council, are part of the international coalition that is trying to get Iran to suspend its nuclear program in return for economic incentives, Beijing and Moscow have staked out a far less aggressive stance against Tehran than have the United States and European Union. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

On June 13, the SCO's executive secretary, Zhang Deguang, sought to dampen speculation surrounding Iran's presence and future status. In a video conference with reporters in Moscow, Deguang said the Iran nuclear issue would not figure prominently in the Shanghai discussions, the official Russian news agency RIA Novosti reported. "Given the regional nature of the SCO, I do not think that the Iranian problem will be a priority at the summit," Deguang said.

Other representatives of member states have indicated that the Iran membership issue is currently too hot to touch. Some diplomats are citing the organization's technical limitations in explaining the likely deferral of the Iran membership issue. "There are no documents that can regulate membership of the potential candidates, including Iran," Tajik Foreign Minister Talbak Nazarov said.

The admission of new members into the SCO requires additional deliberation, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Liu Jianchao said on May 18. Asked if the organization could be enlarged at its June summit, Liu said only that "some countries have applied for membership through official and unofficial channels."

"The SCO is not directed against anyone and is open for all," but its openness has its limits, Vitaly Vorobyov, President Putin's special envoy on SCO affairs, announced on May 22. Commenting on Tehran's desire to join the SCO, Vorobyov conceded that the Iranian stance on some issues could prove problematic for the SCO.

Russian observers believe Iran is seeking SCO membership in order to boost its defenses against US-led international pressure to halt uranium enrichment activities. However, Iran's ambassador to Kazakhstan, Romin Mekhmonparast, told journalists in Almaty on May 22 that Tehran's efforts to join the SCO was not connected to the nuclear crisis. Speculation concerning the Iranian membership issue gained steam following a May 30 meeting in Moscow of SCO parliamentary leaders. At that gathering, Sergei Mironov, speaker of Russia's Federation Council, urged collective action to strengthen "interaction and integration within the framework of the organization." A joint statement issued after the meeting affirmed Mironov's views.

Officially, Iran's possible membership in the grouping was not on the agenda of the SCO meeting in Moscow. However, observers considered it as hardly a coincidence that on the same day as the Moscow gathering, the Iranian Foreign Ministry confirmed Ahmadinejad's plans to attend the SCO summit in Shanghai.

Russian officials have stoutly resisted American pressure related to Iran's participation at SCO summit. At the same time, Moscow appears to recognize that Ahmadinejad's presence in Shanghai has the potential to exacerbate the international diplomatic row. On May 17, a RIA-Novosti report, citing anonymous Kremlin sources, said that Ahmadinejad had been asked not to speak about issues related to the United States or Israel during the SCO summit. Instead, SCO organizers want Ahmadinejad to concentrate any public comments on Iran's role as a regional economic partner, the report said.

SCO members are expected to sign 15 agreements during the summit, aiming to strengthen cooperation in the fight against terrorism, religious extremism and separatism; and to expand trade and economic ties. The June 15 summit will also mark the organization's fifth anniversary.

Some Western political analysts now view the SCO as an organization aimed at countering US and EU strategic influence, especially in Central Asia. SCO member states have been keen to present the organization as an unaligned security and economic grouping committed to countering terrorism, religious extremism and separatism. "The SCO will not become a new military-political alliance, at least, in the near future," Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov said during a visit to Beijing last April.