EurasiaNet Eurasia Insight - Azerbaijani Opposition Leaders Announce Joint Visit to United States Amid Speculation of Unified Presidential Candidacy

EURASIA INSIGHT

AZERBAIJANI OPPOSITION LEADERS ANNOUNCE JOINT VISIT TO UNITED STATES AMID SPECULATION OF UNIFIED PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDACY
Kenan Aliyev 6/16/03

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The leaders of Azerbaijan’s three main opposition parties have disclosed plans to make a joint visit to the United States. Some political analysts in Baku believe that the trip is designed to promote a unified opposition candidate to compete in Azerbaijan’s presidential election this fall.

Azerbaijan’s Central Election Commission (CEC) has confirmed the presidential vote will take place October 15, the Turan news agency reported. However, just who will be running in the election remains unclear. Health issues continue to cloud President Heidar Aliyev’s candidacy. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

The opposition daily Yeni Musavat reported June 14 that doctors had advised against Aliyev making a run for re-election. The report went on to predict that the administration would focus its attention in the coming days on promoting the candidacy of the president’s son, Ilham Aliyev. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Meanwhile, the Trend news agency reported that Turkish Health Minister Recep Akdag had met with President Aliyev on June 11 and pronounced the Azerbaijani leader�s "state of health as fine."

Uncertainty also abounds in the opposition camp, which has been riven by political rivalries and policy differences. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archives]. In the absence of unity, most political observers give the leading opposition parties � Musavat, led by Isa Gambar; the reform-wing of the Azerbaijan Popular Front, headed by Ali Kerimli; and the Azerbaijan National Independence Party (ANIP), led by Etibar Mamedov � little chance of winning a presidential election. Unification, however, could give the opposition rough parity with Aliyev’s New Azerbaijan Party.

That is why the June 14 announcement of the joint US visit by the three opposition leaders has sparked considerable interest in political circles in Baku. The trio will visit Washington at the invitation of the National Democratic Institute (NDI), prompting speculation that US activists may try to facilitate a deal that would allow the opposition to mount a unified presidential campaign. Zerkalo, an independent daily newspaper, commented that "the United States is trying to give the opposition one last chance to unite and produce a single candidate."

No specific timing for the Azerbaijani opposition visit has been announced. Ambassador Nelson Ledsky, regional director for Eurasia at NDI, sought to downplay the notion that the visit was designed to promote a unified candidacy. He pointed out that NDI is a non-governmental organization with no ties to the US government. The Bush administration has been a strong backer of Aliyev’s government, in part because of Baku’s support in the ongoing effort to contain international terrorism. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

"Philosophically, of course, it is important that coalitions be built in all these countries [in the former Soviet Union]," Ledsky added. "This is part of the democracy building effort that we engage in everywhere all the time, but it is nothing special for Azerbaijan."

The goal of the visit, Ledsky stressed, "is to point out to the American leadership and to the American public that there is a multi-party political system in Azerbaijan and that there are competing factions who will participate in the election this fall. We have taken no steps to try to unite anybody with anybody. In fact we talked to everybody."

According to the opposition daily Hurriyyet, the opposition trio during their visit to Washington are likely to meet with Rasul Guliyev, the exiled leader of the Azerbaijan Democratic Party (ADP). [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive].

While observers contend that internal strife has diluted the Azerbaijani opposition’s performance in past elections, opposition leaders tend to attribute their difficulties to an unfair electoral system that they contend favors the Aliyev administration. They say the state retains broad powers over mass media outlets, adding that the administration controls the CEC.

So far, party leaders have acknowledged the effort to explore a unified presidential candidate, but they have largely refrained from making their precise positions known. Following a June 14 joint meeting, Kerimli announced that opposition leaders intended to "impose a moratorium on public discussion" on the issue, Turan reported.

ANIP Chairman Etibar Mamedov, whom the party nominated as their candidate for the presidency last week, said that he accepts the idea of a unified candidate, "but the opposition first must ensure that the electoral process is legal."

Ledsky largely endorsed the view that the electoral system is stacked against Aliyev’s challengers. "We don’t think the formula that has been adopted for the composition of the Central Election Commission is going to produce a free and fair election," Ledsky said. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Opposition representatives recently alleged that authorities improperly altered election legislation after it had been approved by parliament. According to Yeni Musavat, the alteration is found in the first paragraph of Article 179. The parliament-approved language as published in newspapers reads: "If the tenure of the president ends before the constitutionally mandated term, extraordinary elections for president shall be conducted." The changed text reads: "If the tenure of the president ends in advance of scheduled elections, such elections shall be cancelled and extraordinary elections shall be scheduled."

Observers cite President Aliyev’s uncertain health as the reason for the alteration. In the event of his incapacitation or death during the election campaign, it would enable the ruling elite to stop the elections, reorganize and run a new candidate. "This is absurd," said Gambar. "Let’s say a month or a week before the elections, the head of state cannot finish his term. They will stop the elections and announce new ones [elections]? This goes against the Constitution. You can see a blatant game going on here."

Editor�s Note: Kenan Aliev is a journalist based in Washington, DC.

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