Armenian Opposition Gets Ready to Rally

Plans for a large-scale opposition rally on June 20 are sparking concerns about the likelihood of fresh violence on the eve of a critical vote in the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe about Armenia's efforts to reverse the effects of its March 1 crackdown on opposition protestors.

As during this year's presidential election campaign, the bone of contention centers on a question of venue. The four-hour demonstration, organized by ex-President Levon Ter-Petrosian's political movement, is expected to be held at 6pm on Liberty Square in downtown Yerevan, the preferred location for opposition protests.

But the Yerevan city government has refused to authorize a rally in the Square, a location within easy walking distance of key government offices.

The opposition charges politics is the reason for the refusal. The city says it is children.

An afternoon entertainment for Yerevan youngsters has been scheduled for the same day at the same location, and will last until the late evening, Kamo Movsisian, head of the city department for Culture, Sports and Youth Issues, told EurasiaNet. "Attractions for children will be set up all over the square that day and it's illogical to think there is a political underpinning in that," Movsisian stated.

As an alternative, Ter-Petrosian's Pan-National Movement proposed the area in front of Yerevan's centrally located Institute for Ancient Manuscripts – the regular back-up site for opposition gatherings – but the proposal was denied. City government representatives could not be reached to explain their decision. The opposition claims that it was told that the government fears that unrest could break out at the site.

Instead, the city offered Ter-Petrosian supporters a square near Hrazdan Stadium, the country's largest football arena, about five kilometers from downtown Yerevan.

Arguing that protestors have been banished to the boondocks, one Ter-Petrosian supporter terms the city's proposal "absurd," and asserts that it is "the people's right" to hold a rally on Liberty Square.

"If ... the application for a rally adjacent to Matenadaran [Institute for Ancient Manuscripts] is refused based on the possibility of causing disturbances, then can't they be instigated near Hrazdan Stadium as well?" asked Levon Zurabian, a senior member of the ex-president's Pan-National Movement. "A rally ... can't be held in an isolated place like Hrazdan Stadium."

One pro-opposition political analyst attributes the government's decision to fear.

"They are afraid of the movement that has begun," argued Aghasi Yenokian. "[T]he authorities faced a dilemma of either entering into a dialogue with the opposition or keeping their rigid stance. They opted for the second, and that will no doubt lead to a major explosion."

Arguably, a degree of skittishness among some government supporters is noticeable. Parliamentarian Davit Harutiunian, head of the Armenian delegation to the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, told reporters on June 13 that he worries that the demonstrations may mean more clashes.

"We don't have specially trained detachments with the proper equipment to prevent further negative developments with minimal damage," Harutiunian elaborated. "And there is a concern about that in every sober mind."

As have other opposition members, Ter-Petrosian coalition member Zarubian, however, put "full responsibility" for any lack of order at the June 20 rally on the government. "The June 20 rally will take place, and it will take place with Levon Ter-Petrosian," he declared.

Meanwhile, President Serzh Sarkisian, in what is becoming a favored communication technique, has already delivered a televised caution to police. Law enforcement officers, Sarkisian stressed, share the blame for the violence on March 1.

"If the government is guilty, this means that the police are guilty too," he said. "For the first time, the police had to deal with a deliberate plan to stage massive unrest ... I am sure that if the combat readiness of the police were at the highest level, it would have been possible to avoid the killing of eight citizens and two policemen ..."

The opposition's right to rally is not in question, Sarkisian added to reporters on hand for the meeting.

"Rallies have always been and will always be held in our country. I have stated many times I will always defend our citizens' right to express their protest ... Let them go hold their rally," he said.

But some Yerevan residents wonder whether Sarkisian's target audience was the law enforcement agencies as much as it was PACE. On June 23, the body is scheduled to discuss whether or not to annul Armenia's voting rights based on its progress in meeting a series of conditions, including removing restrictions on public demonstrations.

PACE co-rapporteurs Georges Colombier and John Prescott spent June 16-17 in Yerevan meeting with government officials, pro-government and opposition politicians, as well as the families of those still detained in connection with the March 1 crackdown.

The government, however, can argue that it has made progress in meeting two additional PACE conditions. As requested, a parliamentary committee has been established to investigate the events of March 1, and a so-called Public Council set up to stimulate dialogue between government, opposition and non-government representatives.

Opposition members of the Council, however, are limited to representatives of the relatively weak and small Christian Democratic Union, National Democratic Party of Armenia and the National Democrats' Bloc. Representatives from the Ter-Petrosian coalition have refused to take part.

Their absence, though, has done nothing to discourage the government's official conviction that it is set on the right path. A spokesperson for Sarkisian noted on June 16 that "[d]emocratic reforms are not limited to the implementation of the resolution's provisions and will be continuous," news agencies reported.