Russian-Georgian Talks on Abkhazia Hampered by Mistrust

Talks between Georgia and Russia on a joint policy toward Georgia's breakaway republic of Abkhazia have produced limited progress toward consensus. Critically, Abkhaz representatives did not attend the talks. On June 19, Abkhaz spokespeople denied progress with Georgia on other issues, and Moscow remained officially silent on the discussions.

The June 16 talks in Moscow constitute the latest effort to forge consensus between Russia and Georgia on the breakaway republic. Abkhazia's chief diplomat, Sergei Shamba had reportedly expected trilateral talks, but in the event only Russian and Georgian diplomats discussed policy. Ominous signs of stalemate had preceded the talks by about a week. During a crisis in which rebels in Georgia's Kodori Gorge held three United Nations observers hostage for five days, Abkhazia's prime minister reportedly took occasion to rebuke Georgia. [For background on the crisis, see the Eurasia Insight archives]. The breakaway republic's official news service, Apsnypress, quoted Raul Khadjimba as accusing Georgia of neglecting its promises to keep the area secure. On June 19, according to local sources, Abkhaz officials denied that they had reached agreement with Georgia on setting up joint patrols in the area.

The barbs revealed the confusing tangle of claims and responsibilities about the region's security. Teimuraz Achugba, a member of Abkhazia's parliament, told Apsnypress that Georgian special services had engineered the hostage crisis in order to sow chaos and plan for a staged terrorist incursion that would justify further attacks. Georgia's Defense Minister, David Tevzadze, in turn told Interfax that Russian patrols had failed to adequately protect the area. Abkhaz First Deputy Prime Minister Astamur Tarba has reportedly called for a permanent deployment of Russian peacekeepers in Kodori. Georgian officials, who fear Russian impositions on their own sovereignty, have repeatedly dismissed the idea of a Russian presence in Kodori.

Before the talks began, a unified approach to Abkhazia seemed especially remote. On May 30, summing up an informal Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) summit in St. Petersburg, Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma told reporters that the body had decided to extend its peacekeeping mandate in Abkhazia by another ten years. Many observers thought that Kuchma, who appeared alone, was trying to shield Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze from unpleasant questions about Russian peacekeepers in Abkhazia, as well as recent Russian press reports that Washington might use bases in Georgia and Azerbaijan to launch an attack against Iran. However, Kuchma's statement prompted backpedaling. On June 2, Shevardnadze insisted that the ten-year projection reflected a "misunderstanding" and that he and Russian President Vladimir Putin remained "agreed in principle" to prolong the peacekeepers' mandate until any side would demand their withdrawal. Reports from American wire services suggested that Putin and Shevardnadze had agreed at the summit on a beefed-up Russian presence in Abkhazia.

The official talks began, though, in an atmosphere of recrimination between Georgia and Russia. Tensions are running high, with some elements in Georgian politics warning of Russian meddling and Russia worried about growing American military weight in Georgia. Both these concerns intensified as US President George W. Bush and his advisors issued sterner statements about Iran, since a confrontation between Washington and Tehran could fray relations between Tbilisi and Moscow. Since June 12, when loyalist parliamentarian Irina Sarishvili-Chanturia warned of Russian plans for a "large-scale provocation" at the Georgian border, Georgian officials including Shevardnadze have echoed this idea. On June 16, during a radio interview, Shevardnadze endorsed Sarishvili-Chanturia's claim but posited that – even if Russian policymakers "herded" terrorists across the border – Russian border guards would not allow these terrorists to cause any harm.

While Shevardnadze airs mistrust over Russian intentions, Russia seems intent on advancing its energy claims within Georgia. A May 28 handshake agreement between the Georgian government and Gazprom, Russia's natural gas giant, has prompted indignation from American officials, who see it as a stealth attempt to preserve Russian hegemony in the country. [For background, see the Eurasia Insight archives]. The written pact that Gazprom and Georgia predicted on May 28 for late June has yet to materialize.

This is potentially significant because business issues may emerge as further impediments to a Tbilisi-Moscow deal regarding Abkhazia. Russian media outlets have reported earlier this year that Russian firms and individuals were acquiring real estate in Abkhazia in hopes of gaining profit by investing in parcels in the conflict-stricken area at rock-bottom prices. The idea of tolerating land speculation in a disputed area, while still at the level of rumor, sparked Georgian criticism in February. On June 13, Abkhaz deputy Prime Minister Emma Taniya reportedly received a visiting delegation of the Moscow International Business Association to discuss, among other things, possible construction projects.

The lack of a breakthrough in the latest round of talks between Russia and Georgia may mean that the next several months bring more negotiation by innuendo and more criticism across borders. With Georgian elections approaching in early November, though, Shevardnadze figures to react strongly to anything he or his advisors perceive as Russian efforts to influence Georgia by way of Abkhazia.