Eurasia Insight:
TURKMENISTAN: HOW HEALTHY IS NIYAZOV?
6/21/05

Amid the collapse of Turkmenistan’s health-care system, the health of the country’s mercurial president, Saparmurat Niyazov, has become the subject of conjecture. An opposition-run website recently alleged that Niyazov’s health is failing, and that he has trouble walking without assistance.

The cult-of-personality built by Niyazov since 1991 makes it impossible to independently verify any report concerning his health. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Given Niyazov’s unchallenged authority in Turkmenistan, any incapacitating illness could create a dangerous leadership vacuum, Turkmenistan experts say. Likewise, the country lacks a framework for political succession, meaning that his death could touch off a destabilizing battle for power among his leading lieutenants. As Turkmenistan possesses the world’s fifth largest reserve of natural gas, the impact of potential instability could be felt far beyond the country’s borders. The country is also located in a geopolitically sensitive spot, with two neighboring states being Iran and Afghanistan.

“His death will be huge. The whole society will be turned upside down,” said Rafis Abazov, a Columbia University lecturer and the author of A Historical Dictionary of Turkmenistan. Rumors about Niyazov’s poor health have surfaced occasionally in recent years. The latest bout of speculation began in early May, when Niyazov traveled to Moscow for festivities marking the 60th anniversary of V-E Day. Diplomats who had the opportunity to view Niyazov up close said he seemed frail, adding that he required assistance from aides while walking.

“Niyazov is ill, and practically cannot walk,” said a report posted on the Turkmen opposition-run web site Gundogar.com. The source for the report was an unnamed Turkmen diplomat stationed at the country’s embassy in Moscow. The diplomat told Gundogar that the Turkmen presidential press service routinely touches up photos of Niyazov to make him appear fitter than is actually the case.

Niyazov has received treatment from a team of German medical specialists for undisclosed illnesses. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. According to Gundogar, the arrival of German doctors in Ashgabat on June 2 was “connected with Niyazov’s worsening health.” Helping to fuel speculation about Niyazov’s health was the fact that in early June he left the capital Ashgabat, reportedly to enjoy a vacation at a Caspian Sea resort. Turkmen television reported that Niyazov returned from his vacation June 17, showing video of him being greeted by government officials at Ashgabat’s airport.

Some observers note that Niyazov seems to retain access to top-notch care even as he has taken action in recent years to systematically dismantle the country’s health-care system. A recent published report suggested that Turkmenistan was at risk of a “grave” public health crisis. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

State-controlled media outlets in Turkmenistan have attempted to counter the negative publicity associated with the publication of the report, titled Human Rights and Health in Turkmenistan. For example, Turkmen state television on June 17 said Niyazov deserved praise for the health-care system’s “remarkable, world-class” achievements. The Turkmen TV report went on to claim that average life expectancy had reached 70 years of age. The independent report on the country’s health care system indicated that average life expectancy was 62.7 in 2002.