Conflict in Tbilisi Bodes Ill for Abkhazia

Recent protests over the autumn parliamentary elections, as well as the June 5 kidnappings in the Kodori Gorge, may poison Georgia's efforts to lure foreign help in negotiating the Abkhaz conflict. On numerous past occasions, diplomatic snarls with Russia and the Abkhazians have halted the peace process. This time, major political instability within Georgia may emerge as the weak reed.

Disputes over the composition of the Central Election Commission, a potential energy deal with Russia's natural-gas giant, and general domestic unrest all limit Tbilisi's effectiveness in finding a solution to its Abkhazia problem. [For background, see the EurasiaNet Georgia archive]. While President Eduard Shevardnadze's Alliance for a New Georgia scrambles to maintain power, it will probably worry more about the makeup of the Central Election Commission than about the pace of negotiations on the breakaway republic of Abkhazia.

In the past the commission's 18 members have been mostly pro-government, and Shevardnadze had appointed the chairman. Emboldened opposition groups have asked for parity on the commission with more representatives, each with an equal vote. But negotiations with Shevardnadze's government over proposed changes have repeatedly ended in a stalemate. [For background on the election controversy, see the Eurasia Insight archive].

The conflict with Abkhazia has gone on for a decade. A proposed gas deal with Russia's GazProm, which is also roiling Tbilisi, could stall resolution further. Despite plans by Western nations to build two different pipelines to Turkey, Shevardnadze announced recently that Georgia and Russia made a verbal agreement to work on a joint venture to revive a pipeline from the Northern Caucasus to Georgia. The deals involving the two Western pipelines, respectively known as the Southern Caucasus and the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC), would nearly free Georgia from dependency on Russian oil while offering the Georgians an abundant energy source at a heavily discounted price. By seeming to snub this effort, Georgia risks losing American ballast for negotiations over Abkhazia. [For background on the Gazprom deal, see the Eurasia Insight archives].

Opposition forces, as well as allies of the president, have questioned the wisdom of the deal and others have called for more transparency in the discussions with Russia and GazProm. In a report by RFE/RL, both the former economy minister and current head of the parliament's budget committee expressed their concerns about the extreme secrecy of the agreement and the potential consequences to Georgia's economic health and international sovereignty. The lack of transparency that plagues this story also clouds negotiations over Abkhazia. [See related EurasiaNet story]. It may be that a fervid desire to win the November elections clouds politicians' ability to shed light on the stubborn discord with the breakaway province.