Iran's presidential race has polarized the country. Regardless of who wins the presidential run-off on June 24, the acrimony generated during the election process will not dissipate quickly, creating uncertainty for Iran's political future, some political analysts suggest.
Ali Akhbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, the former presidential who until just days ago was considered the heavy favorite to regain the presidency, will face the ultra-conservative mayor of Tehran, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, in the June 24 run-off. The race is now widely seen as the closest and most contentious in the 26-year history of the Islamic republic.
Ahmadinejad's emergence as Rafsanjani's opponent shocked most political observers in Iran, as the consensus opinion held that the Tehran mayor ran a lackluster campaign leading up to the first round of voting June 17. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Official results show Rafsanjani won 21 percent of the vote in the June 17 election, which was contested by seven candidates. Ahmadinejad ran a surprisingly close second, garnering 19.5 percent support. Overall, 63 percent of Iran's 29.3 million voters cast ballots.
Reformists, including the third-place finisher Mehdi Karroubi, immediately labeled the voting results fraudulent, and accused hardliner-dominated entities, including the Revolutionary Guards and the Guardian Council, of high-jacking the election. Karroubi cited a case of massive fraud in South Khorasan, in which there were reportedly 298,000 votes cast, even though the province had only about 270,000 registered voters. Ahmadinejad outpolled Rafsanjani in the province by almost a 3-to-1 ratio.
The Guardian Council dismissed allegations of widespread vote-rigging and dirty tricks. However, the Interior Ministry on June 23 issued a statement saying 26 individuals had been arrested for committing electoral violations. One of those taken into custody was a "prominent military figure ... who made speeches against a candidate and damaged the image of the Islamic system," the official IRNA news agency reported. Members of Iran's military establishment are barred from taking an active part in campaigning.
Some political observers believe instances of outright ballot-rigging and counting violations did not exert considerable influence on the final tally in the June 17 vote. At the same time, many analysts say Ahmadinejad would not have been able to make it through to the second round had it not been for a massive, last-minute mobilization of conservative-leaning institutions to bolster the Tehran mayor's candidacy.
Conservatives -- who already control the judicial and legislative branches of government, in addition to the country's un-elected religious oversight bodies -- had been hampered by a lack of unity during much of the presidential campaign. Three of the seven presidential candidates cast themselves as standard-bearers of the conservative cause. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Hardliner leaders agreed on June 15 just two days before the first round of voting to throw all the resources at their disposal behind Ahmadinejad. This decision reportedly received the tacit endorsement of Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who is reputed to be a bitter political foe of Rafsanjani's.
In a clear violation of the constitution, hardliners succeeded in placing tens of thousands of members of the Revolutionary Guards and Basij Militia, both important military pillars that prop up the Islamic republic, in oversight committees at most polling stations. Relying on persuasion, coercion and intimidation, these conservative shock troops bolstered turnout for Ahmadinejad. At the same time, they discouraged turnout by those considered hostile to the hardliner agenda.
The conservatives' reliance on heavy-handed methods has continued during the run-up to the June 24 run-off. Various hardliner-controlled entities -- including the Judiciary, the Guardian Council and the Special Court of the Clergy -- have been utilized to intimidate activists, journalists and campaign workers, and muzzle public discussion of first-round voting irregularities. Underscoring the hardliner intolerance for dissent was the June 20 decision to close four newspapers, including the main reformist organ Eghbal, for printing a letter from Karroubi concerning voting irregularities.
In a written response to Karroubi's allegations, the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, reinforced the hardliner stance by inferring that criticism of the election process was tantamount to seditious behavior. "Feeling the full wrath of God and his power, I for one will not allow any individual to create a crisis in this country," Ayatollah Khamenei wrote.
On the eve of the run-off, the election appeared too close to call. One poll, issued by the Iranian Students Polling Agency, showed Ahmadinejad with a statistically insignificant lead of 41.9 percent to 41.5 percent for Rafsanjani. Aides to the 70-year-old Rafsanjani, who previously served as president from 1989-97, said a high turnout on June 24 would favor their candidate.
The race has created clear divisions both within the political elite and among the general public. Practically every religious and political entity in the Islamic Republic has been affected by the campaign, with political passions prompting unprecedented new alignments to take shape within the establishment. Divisions have appeared even in such bastions of tradition as the Militant Clergy Association and the Qom Theological Seminary, as some influential clerics have given their support to Ahmadinejad, while others are backing Rafsanjani.
Some conservative ayatollahs are endorsing Rafsanjani reportedly because they disapprove of tendency of centralizing power in the hands of the Supreme Leader. Ahmadinejad enjoys strong backing from the Revolutionary Guards and Ayatollah Khamenei. In addition, the Tehran mayor receives support from neo-conservative elements who have moved aggressively in the legislature to roll back some of the changes introduce by outgoing President Mohammad Khatami's administration. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].
The election campaign also seems to have divided Iranians largely along class lines. Poorer and working-class Iranians, angered by a widening income gap in Iran, have been receptive to Ahmadinejad's populist prescriptions for reviving Iran's moribund economy. Ahmadinejad's retrograde economic program plays heavily on class resentments. Rafsanjani's relatively progressive platform, meanwhile, has enabled him to cobble together a diverse coalition of support, appealing to educated Iranians, members of the middle class, entrepreneurs and religious pragmatists.
Given their use of heavy-handed methods during the first-round of voting, hardliners appear unwilling to accept an election result that allows for the implementation of reforms aimed at the liberalization of society and the economy. Such action, from the hardliner viewpoint, would be antithetical to the guiding principles of the Islamic republic.
A source involved in the presidential campaign, speaking on condition of anonymity, said hardliners have presented Rafsanjani with a stark choice: either water-down his political agenda which currently includes plans to enhance women's rights, curtail the influence of the Revolutionary Guards and promote broad market-oriented reforms or face electoral defeat and the certain end of his political career.
Some analysts have compared the Rafsanjani-Ahmadinejad run-off to a game of high-stakes poker. In the event of a Rafsanjani victory, it would not be known whether the hardliners were bluffing, or whether he succumbed to their pressure, until he named his cabinet.
For now, Rafsanjani is sounding defiant. During a June 21 campaign appearance he said he would vigorously fight any tampering with the second-round voting results. "I will not stand idle for one minute, and will pursue every avenue to stop it," he said.
Though there is no way of predicting the outcome of the June 24 vote, political observers are nearly unanimous in their belief that Iranian politics has been permanently altered by the campaign.
Editor's note:
Kamal Nazer Yasin is a pseudonym for a freelance journalist specializing in Iranian affairs.
