Armenia, Turkey Move Cautiously Towards Rapprochement at Istanbul Meeting

While cameras flashed and the leaders of 10 regional countries shook hands at the Black Sea Economic Cooperation (BSEC) summit in Istanbul on June 25, behind the scenes a far more crucial meeting was taking place.

Armenian Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian and his Turkish counterpart, Ismail Cem, were deep in talks. Later, Turkish officials denied that there had been any official meetings with anyone, but as the BSEC leaders headed off for a farewell boat trip up the Bosphorus, the general consensus among political observers in Istanbul was that Armenia and Turkey had taken advantage of an opportunity to promote rapprochement.

"I sense a softening of the stance of both sides," says columnist Haluk Sahin of the leading daily Radikal. "The Black Sea conference was a good step in this process."

In recent years, the reconciliation process between Yerevan and Ankara has become intertwined with other disputes in the Caucasus, namely the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Thus, many experts aren't expecting rapid progress towards the establishment of friendly relations.

"There is a difference of approach to what I think is a very slow process of rapprochement," says Ferai Tinc, foreign policy analyst for the leading daily Hurriyet. "The Armenian minister wants contacts to be between Turkey and Armenia only, while Cem sees these contacts as part of a trilateral process involving Azerbaijan too."

A solution to the Karabakh conflict remains elusive. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Since fighting began in 1988 between Armenia and Azerbaijan, Turkey has had no official relations with its eastern Armenian neighbor. Ankara is a staunch supporter of Azerbaijan.

A week before the BSEC conference, an announcement came that provided added momentum for the reconciliation process. A tripartite meeting between Georgian, Turkish and Azerbaijani officials in the Turkish city of Trabzon late April had agreed on plans for the opening of another border crossing between Georgia and Turkey. Nothing too dramatic – except that the new crossing will be at Aktas, a town near the junction between Georgia, Turkey and Armenia.

Since the Nagorno-Karabakh war, the Turkish-Armenian border has been closed, but with this new opening, only some 68km from the Georgian-Armenian border post, there is wide speculation that Aktas is really a Turkish-Armenian border crossing by a different name.

So, when the delegations gathered in Istanbul on June 25 for the 10th anniversary of the BSEC organization – a largely protocol-dominated affair – the chance for a further push forward was at hand. Turkish Foreign Minister Ismail Cem met with Oskanian, and with Azerbaijani President Heidar Aliyev, though not at the same time.

Publicly, Armenian and Azerbaijani officials are reluctant to engage in direct talks. Armenia also rules out any mediation role by Ankara. In private discussions, however, the mood is different, some observers say. "Behind closed doors, I think everyone understands each other very well," Tinc said.

Turkey insists that before normal links can resume, Armenia must withdraw from Azerbaijani territory occupied during the armed phase of the conflict. Ankara also wants Yerevan to give up any territorial claims on Turkey itself.

Turkey also hopes Yerevan will attempt to restrain Armenian Diaspora groups -- mainly in the United States and France. Diaspora organizations have long pressed for international the recognition of the 1915 slaughter of Armenians carried out by Ottoman troops as genocide. Turkey argues that the massacres were simply a tragic consequence of World War I, which was raging at the time. The Armenian government also considers genocide recognition as a top foreign policy priority.

Since the Soviet collapse, there has been no significant shift in either side's position, and Turkey's relations with Armenia have been officially non-existent. All the more surprising then, when back in May, on the fringes of the NATO Reykjavik summit, the Armenian and Turkish foreign ministers quietly held talks, launching the rapprochement effort.

Most observers believe the geopolitical upheaval brought on by the September 11 terrorist attacks is a major factor in promoting a rapprochement. "After the US and Russia came to a strategic agreement, everything changed," says Tinc. "The Nagorno-Karabakh problem can now be solved because previously it was being used by the Russians as part of their policy to maintain a foothold in the Caucasus. Now that's no longer necessary."

Before leaving Istanbul, Oskanian gave a speech saying that Armenia was "holding out a hand" to Turkey, a gesture many would have thought impossible only a year ago. How firmly it can be grasped is still uncertain, but so far so good.