EurasiaNet Eurasia Insight - Armenia: Presidential Visit to Russia Sparks Speculation on Turkish-Armenian Relations

EURASIA INSIGHT

ARMENIA: PRESIDENTIAL VISIT TO RUSSIA SPARKS SPECULATION ON TURKISH-ARMENIAN RELATIONS
Haroutiun Khachatrian 6/27/08

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The venue for Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan’s first official visit abroad -- Moscow -- came as no surprise. But, in a potential sign of a fresh Armenian foreign policy initiative, it was Turkey that stole the show.

Sargsyan’s June 23-25 trip was designed to emphasize the importance of Armenia’s "strategic partnership’ with Russia. There were the usual touches -- meetings with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, and the chairs of both chambers of parliament. He also placed a wreath at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier, and met with political experts and journalists.

And there were the usual expressions of mutual support. In a June 24 statement, Medvedev described the partnership between Moscow and Yerevan as critical to the entire South Caucasus. The two countries have declared that they will coordinate their foreign policy to further that relationship. "We are confident that close cooperation between Russia and Armenia is a pledge for the stable � development of the whole region," Medvedev said.

Medvedev also reiterated Russia’s support for a solution to the conflict with Azerbaijan over the breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh region via existing negotiating mechanisms.

But the three-day visit was not without surprises -- at least for Armenians. On June 23, Sargsyan, who has requested that the "Sarkisian" spelling of his last name be dropped, announced that he wants to normalize relations with Turkey as quickly as possible. As a means to that end, he has pledged to invite Turkish President Abdullah Gul to Yerevan to watch the September 6 World Cup qualifying match between Turkey and Armenia. The Armenian capital will be hosting the game.

Sargsyan’s assertion that he would not object to a panel of Armenian-Turkish experts examining the massive 1915 killing of ethnic Armenians by Ottoman Turks was cause for further discussion among Armenians. A condition, however, was put on the creation of such a panel -- the reopening of Turkey’s border with Armenia. "Otherwise, [the panel] may become a good way of abusing and prolonging the issue for [many] years," PanArmenian.net reported Sargsyan as saying.

The issue has long been a stumbling block for any attempt at normalizing relations with Ankara. Former President Robert Kocharian had maintained that the event -- termed genocide within Armenia -- was not subject to debate.

One Yerevan expert, though, argues that Sargsyan’s move was more aimed at the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) than at Turkey itself. "I believe Sargsyan was just trying to get a beneficial vote, including by the Turkish delegates, for the PACE resolution about Armenia expected in Strasbourg two days later," commented Alexsander Iskandarian, director of the Caucasus Institute. The June 25 resolution gave the Armenian government until January 2009 to meet earlier demands for overtures to the opposition in the wake of March 1 crackdown on protestors led by ex-President Levon Ter-Petrosian. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Armenia’s ruling coalition appears potentially split on the notion of an Armenian-Turkish genocide investigation. In a June 25 story, the daily newspaper Aravot quoted Vahan Hovahannisian, leader of the Armenian Revolutionary Federation-Dashnaktsutiun’s parliamentary faction, as saying that his party would organize a protest if Gul arrives in Yerevan in September.

By comparison, problems with Russia appeared to receive far less official scrutiny.
No progress was made in determining the price of Russian gas for Armenia the coming year. Nor was mention made of Russia’s prospective role in an Armenian project to refine Iranian crude oil. Apart from a pledge to restore Armenia’s railway link with Russia, land transportation -- an issue since the main Georgian-Russian border point closed in 2006 -- also escaped attention.

While most Armenian politicians dodged debate about Armenia’s ties with Russia, pro-opposition media were quick to express skepticism about the event.

Referring to unnamed "sources close to the Kremlin," the daily Haykakan Zhamanak claimed on June 25 that Medvedev had criticized Sargsyan’s efforts to strengthen Armenia’s ties with the European Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization as well as his alleged failure to guarantee political stability within the country. The newspaper argued that the lack of a response from Medvedev to an open invitation from Sargsyan to visit Armenia hints that the Kremlin may not be as pleased with Yerevan as the official bonhomie may suggest.

Officials could not be reached for comment. But analyst Iskandarian believes that, on the whole, the summit’s primary purpose was achieved: Sargsyan and Medvedev have now "calibrated their watches," he said. "Both have reached their goals."

Editor�s Note: Haroutiun Khachatrian is a freelance writer based in Yerevan.

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