Kyrgyzstan’s Presidential Election: Will it Give Bakiyev a Mandate that Promotes Stabilization?

The winner of Kyrgyzstan's special presidential election on July 10 seems pre-determined. Kurmanbek Bakiyev, the country's interim chief executive, is expected to easily out-poll the five other candidates in the race. The big question surrounding the election is whether or not it will confer upon Bakiyev's administration the legitimacy needed to promote stabilization.

Since coming to power amid revolutionary upheaval in March, Bakiyev's interim government has struggled to restore order in the country, and prepare the way for a promised reforms aimed at democratizing society. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Poor policy and personnel decisions are partly to blame for Bakiyev's current problems. For example, the interim government's slow response to the spontaneous seizure of land in and around Bishkek left many capital residents disgruntled. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. In addition, members of his administration have been accused of corrupt and arbitrary practices, the very same behavior that fueled the protests that ousted former president Askar Akayev. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

The election offers Bakiyev, who is widely viewed as a representative of southern political interests, a chance for a fresh start, and he seems intent, at least outwardly, on trying to make the most of the opportunity. A key element of his strategy is a political alliance with Feliks Kulov, northern Kyrgyzstan's most influential politician. The deal, under which Bakiyev will serve as president and Kulov as prime minister, is designed to keep sectional tension in check, thus reducing the chances of political gridlock, and/or outright confrontation after the election.

Despite the entente with his most powerful rival, it is not certain that Bakiyev will emerge from the election -- whether he wins outright in the first round, or triumphs in a run-off – with a mandate that would enable him to stabilize what has up to now been a chaotic political transition.

Several outcomes in the upcoming election could severely damage the Bakiyev administration's ability to govern after the completion of the voting process. In a July 5 television interview, Parliament Speaker Omurbek Tekebayev expressed concern that the July 10 election could be declared invalid due to insufficient voter turnout. A majority of registered voters must cast ballots for the vote to be official. Tekebayev noted that a lack of public enthusiasm concerning the election could prompt many people to stay at home on election day. "There is no choice," Tekebayev said. "The results of the elections seem to be known in advance."

Another possibility, some political analysts suggest, is that a large percentage of voters will cast ballots "against all" as an expression of lack of confidence in Bakiyev's administration.

It is also vital for Bakiyev's legitimacy that the vote be deemed largely free of the electoral manipulation that has habitually marked elections not only in Kyrgyzstan, but throughout Central Asia, during the post-Soviet era. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. During the campaign's closing days, candidates have engaged in free-wheeling exchanges in a series of live televised debates, helping to differentiate this election from previous votes. The final debate is scheduled for July 8. Nevertheless, the pre-election period featured a fair-share of turmoil -- most notably the June 17 riot in central Bishkek -- generated in part by the perception that authorities were improperly meddling in the campaign, going so far as to prohibit some politicians from running. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Bakiyev loyalists have denied trying to influence the course of the campaign, and have accused Akayev and his supporters of fomenting the June 17 unrest.

Akayev, who is in exile in Russia, remains a wild card in the Kyrgyz political equation. Though largely discredited, he appears to retain the ability to act as a disruptive force. In an interview with the Interfax news agency on July 6, the former Kyrgyz leader endorsed the Bakiyev-Kulov team, expressing the hope that they will "rise above their personal, political and power ambitions ... and will do everything possible to stabilize the nation." Interim government officials treat such statements as disingenuous, and remain convinced that Akayev, acting through his supporters inside Kyrgyzstan, wants to undermine stability in the country.

Interim Prosecutor General Azimbek Beknazarov raised the possibility that the government might move to strip Akayev's immunity from prosecution, Interfax reported on July 7. Meanwhile, interim Foreign Minister Roza Otunbayeva on July 6 cautioned that Kyrgyzstan remained vulnerable to a counter-revolution. "We have to deal with clandestine enemies," the KyrgyzInfo news agency quoted Otunbayeva as saying. "We have so far dealt only with him [Akayev] and his family. The time will come to deal with everybody, with all the sharks who surrounded him."

Earlier in July, Bakiyev campaign aides complained to the Central Election Commission that "certain people" were engaging in dirty tricks in an attempt to discredit the interim president. The complaints are a reflection of the Bakiyev team's concern that a presidential election victory may not provide the hoped-for mandate, some political analysts say. Media monitors have noted that mass media outlets in recent weeks have published and broadcast a preponderance of negative stories about the Bakiyev-Kulov team. Leaflets have also circulated in the capital calling on voters to boycott the election, or cast a ballot "against all" without providing any justification for such action.