Georgia: Sochi Winter Olympics Could Impact Frozen Conflicts

Although the Georgian government has lauded the decision to hold the 2014 Winter Olympic Games in Sochi, Russia, some regional experts believe the event could create yet another obstacle to the resolution of the so-called frozen conflicts in Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili offered hearty congratulations to Russian President Vladimir Putin after the International Olympic Committee (IOC) awarded the 2014 winter games to the Russian resort city. Sidestepping his own country's bid to host the 2014 winter games, Saakashvili claimed on July 4 that he had supported Sochi's candidacy "from the very beginning."

However he was quick to tie the event to the frozen conflicts. Noting that "ethnic cleansing" took place a mere 50 kilometers (approximately 30 miles) from Sochi, Saakashvili said, according to news reports, that he expected the IOC's move to promote a more "civilized approach" to the peace process. "I really want Russia to get this right," Saakashvili was quoted as saying in Russia Today on July 6. "The Olympics in the Caucasus, which has long been seen as unstable, will promote peace and understanding between nations."

Analysts, however, are divided on exactly how, or if the games will hasten agreement on the separatist territories' political future. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Like Tbilisi, the de facto governments of both Abkhazia and South Ossetia issued statements hailing the Russian-hosted games. According to Abkhazian de facto President Sergei Bagapsh, Sochi's victory is "our own victory."

"Together with you, dear neighbors, we were looking forward to this moment," he reportedly wrote in a congratulatory telegram on July 5.

Zurab Bendianishvili, a conflict-resolution expert currently serving on the Georgian parliament's temporary commission for territorial integrity issues, believes that the Sochi Olympics will have a "direct" effect on the conflicts, especially in Abkhazia. He noted that over the next seven years, while the region is in the spotlight, Russia will have to be on its best behavior. "Now Russia cannot support the separatists so openly," he said, noting that Moscow will have to prove to the international community that it is playing the role of honest mediator. "Russia must consider our proposals."

But other analysts believe that the Olympics could possibly do more to enhance Abkhazia's independence aspirations than to promote Georgia's territorial re-integration aims.

According to Ana Jelenkovic, an associate at the New York-based Eurasia Group specializing in the Caucasus, while regional instability is not in Russia's interests, the Winter Games give Moscow the opportunity to invest more heavily in Abkhazia and in the regional infrastructure. She noted that with the additional government funds earmarked to prepare for the Games – a reported $12 billion according to media reports – Moscow will have more resources to help Abkhazia. A significant boost in Russian assistance would work directly against Georgia's current strategy of showcasing itself as Abkhazia's best economic provider.

"The more Russia can offer [Abkhazia]