EurasiaNet Eurasia Insight - Report Examines Underground Islamic Group's Potential for Violent Action in Central Asia

EURASIA INSIGHT

REPORT EXAMINES UNDERGROUND ISLAMIC GROUP’S POTENTIAL FOR VIOLENT ACTION IN CENTRAL ASIA
7/15/03

The use of "heavy-handed repression" by Central Asian governments increases the risk that the Hizb-ut-Tahrir, a non-violent radical Islamic group, will adopt more confrontational tactics, according to a recently published report. The study, prepared by the Brussels-based International Crisis Group (ICG), is also critical of Western governments, saying their "close association with Central Asian dictatorships" helps fuel Islamic radicalism.

In its report, titled "Radical Islam in Central Asia: Responding to Hizb-ut-Tahrir," the ICG cites some regional human rights activists, who see the underground organization as an "essentially peaceful group that operates only in the realm of ideas and propaganda." The Hizb has specifically rejected terrorism, believing the murder of innocent bystanders to be a violation of Islamic law, the report adds.

The report goes on to caution, however, that "the view that the Hizb-ut-Tahrir is opposed to political violence per se is mistaken." The ideological foundation of the Hizb, which advocates the overthrow of existing governments in Central Asia and the establishment of an Islamic caliphate, leaves room for the possible use of violence, the ICG report indicates. "There is clearly some potential for a defensive jihad [holy war] to be interpreted in a very broad fashion," the report states.

Kyrgyz officials have claimed that an effort is underway to unify radical Islamic groups in Central Asia, including the Hizb, Uighur separatists and the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU). [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. The ICG report is skeptical of such a merger, citing the considerable tactical and strategic differences among the groups.

"The differences in tactics seem too great to overcome � without significant ideological maneuvering on the part of the transnational leadership," the ICG report said. "There is no evidence of significant organizational or ideological links with the IMU."

"A part of Hizb-ut-Tahrir, particularly in Uzbekistan, might respond to a call for more radical measures, but at present it [the Hizb] probably has more to lose than to gain from such a move," the report continued.

Hizb has up to 20,000 active members in Central Asia, mostly in Uzbekistan, the ICG report estimates. The movement has developed a "committed following," recruiting members from the region’s vast pool of the impoverished. "Young men who perceive that their way of life is blocked by �the system,’ by corrupt authorities, or by other obstacles, are particularly vulnerable to Hizb-ut-Tahrir’s simple explanations of why they have not achieved success," the report says.

At the same time, the ICG stresses that the Hizb’s support base and potential influence should not be exaggerated. Although the Hizb has endured while other underground movements have faded from view, the group, given its largely unrealistic goal, is "unlikely to emerge as a major political force with mass appeal in any country," the ICG says.

"There is limited appetite for political Islam [in Central Asia]," the report states. "But it [the Hizb] has become by far the largest radical Islamist movement in the area."

The growth of Hizb followers in Central Asia has less to do with the group’s own ideological appeal than it does with widespread discontent stirred by government repression, especially in Uzbekistan. For many, the underground group provides the only outlet for the venting of frustration. Hizb’s "willingness to address issues that are taboo in the mass media, such as high-level corruption, and the frequent lack of a viable political alternative, clearly helps attract a certain element of angry young men," the ICG report says.

"ICG has frequently interviewed young people who have expressed support for Islamism out of distaste for the government � not because of any particular desire for an Islamic state," the report added.

The hard-line response by Central Asian governments � in particular the mass arrests of suspected Hizb members � has served to heighten the underground organization’s power base. At the same time, the ICG report says the authoritarian political systems in Central Asia have "become almost dependent on internal and external enemies to justify" the lack of progress in social, economic and political reforms. "Hizb-ut-Tahrir serves as a useful excuse for authoritarian policies," the report says.

The report concludes with a caution to Western nations, including the United States, that their largely unqualified support for Central Asian governments undermines the goal of containing Islamic radicalism. "Backing repressive government policies � will not only backfire by probably radicalizing [Hizb] members, but will also confirm many members (and many other Muslims) in their conviction that the West’s role in Central Asia is that of uncritical supporter of dictatorial regimes, intent on stamping on any sign of Muslim activism," the report said.

The report urged Western states to exert more pressure on Central Asian governments to implement reforms, especially in the human rights sphere. "European governments are noticeably less active than the United States on human rights issues."

Western governments should also approach the challenges posed by Hizb activism in Central Asia differently from those created by militant groups in the region, including the IMU and al Qaeda. "Lumping them [Hizb activists] together with violent groups � undermines the campaign against terrorism and gives ammunition to the radicals who claim that the West is acting against free speech and Islam in general," the report says.

Editor�s Note: Hizb-ut-Tahrir, International Crisis Group, ICG

The Central Eurasia Project aims, through its website, meetings, papers, and grants, to foster a more informed debate about the social, political and economic developments of the Caucasus and Central Asia. It is a program of the Open Society Institute-New York. The Open Society Institute-New York is a private operating and grantmaking foundation that promotes the development of open societies around the world by supporting educational, social, and legal reform, and by encouraging alternative approaches to complex and controversial issues.

The views expressed in this publication do not necessarily represent the position of the Open Society Institute and are the sole responsibility of the author or authors.