Kazakhstan: President's Daughter to Sit Out the Upcoming Election

Dariga Nazarbayeva – the powerful daughter of Kazakhstani President Nursultan Nazarbayev, and not so long ago viewed as a possible presidential successor – appears to have taken a wrong political turn. With Kazakhstan's election campaign scheduled to kick off on July 18, Dariga will not be one of the candidates vying for a parliamentary mandate.

Nazarbayeva, currently a member of parliament, has been embroiled in controversy since her husband, Rakhat Aliyev, was indicted on racketeering charges and summarily dismissed from his post as ambassador to the OSCE in Vienna. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. In addition to being left off the pro-presidential Nur Otan Party list of candidates, Nazarbayeva also was forced out as deputy party leader. Both moves were made July 4 during a party congress.

Though some analysts suggest that Nazarbayeva's exclusion from the August 18 election to the lower house – the Mazhilis - marks the end of her political ascent, many others caution that it is too early to write off the career of President Nursultan Nazarbayev's eldest daughter. "She won't leave politics," analyst Dosym Satpayev told EurasiaNet. "I think it's a temporary respite for her."

Nazarbayeva had been deputy leader of Nur Otan since her Asar party – which came in second in the 2004 parliamentary election – merged with Otan, which has traditionally served as the president's main support base. At the time, the merger was seen as a development designed to restrain her readily evident ambition. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

In recent weeks, Nazarbayeva has struggled to keep her political career afloat by pressing on with divorce proceedings against Aliyev, who has challenged legal papers in the case, saying his signature was forged. To pursue his contention, however, Aliyev would have to return to Kazakhstan from Austria, something that he refuses to do. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive]. In addition, Nazarbayeva has reaffirmed her fealty to her father by very publicly backing recent constitutional changes, among which is a provision that enables Nazarbayev to become president-for-life.

Despite such damage-control efforts, Dariga continued to be seen as a political liability for Nazarbayev, argues Satpayev, director of the Assessment Risks Group think-tank: "She was demonstrating her loyalty with all her strength, but the president decided not to take the risk."

Not everyone agrees that Nazarbayev made the decision. Her personal troubles may have prompted Nazarbayeva to withdraw from the race on her own, a commentary published by the Delovaya Nedelya newspaper suggested: "If her decision not to stand was voluntary