EurasiaNet Eurasia Insight - Kazakhstan: President's Daughter to Sit Out the Upcoming Election

EURASIA INSIGHT

KAZAKHSTAN: PRESIDENT’S DAUGHTER TO SIT OUT THE UPCOMING ELECTION
Joanna Lillis 7/17/07

Dariga Nazarbayeva � the powerful daughter of Kazakhstani President Nursultan Nazarbayev, and not so long ago viewed as a possible presidential successor � appears to have taken a wrong political turn. With Kazakhstan’s election campaign scheduled to kick off on July 18, Dariga will not be one of the candidates vying for a parliamentary mandate.

Nazarbayeva, currently a member of parliament, has been embroiled in controversy since her husband, Rakhat Aliyev, was indicted on racketeering charges and summarily dismissed from his post as ambassador to the OSCE in Vienna. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. In addition to being left off the pro-presidential Nur Otan Party list of candidates, Nazarbayeva also was forced out as deputy party leader. Both moves were made July 4 during a party congress.

Though some analysts suggest that Nazarbayeva’s exclusion from the August 18 election to the lower house � the Mazhilis - marks the end of her political ascent, many others caution that it is too early to write off the career of President Nursultan Nazarbayev’s eldest daughter. "She won’t leave politics," analyst Dosym Satpayev told EurasiaNet. "I think it’s a temporary respite for her."

Nazarbayeva had been deputy leader of Nur Otan since her Asar party � which came in second in the 2004 parliamentary election � merged with Otan, which has traditionally served as the president’s main support base. At the time, the merger was seen as a development designed to restrain her readily evident ambition. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

In recent weeks, Nazarbayeva has struggled to keep her political career afloat by pressing on with divorce proceedings against Aliyev, who has challenged legal papers in the case, saying his signature was forged. To pursue his contention, however, Aliyev would have to return to Kazakhstan from Austria, something that he refuses to do. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive]. In addition, Nazarbayeva has reaffirmed her fealty to her father by very publicly backing recent constitutional changes, among which is a provision that enables Nazarbayev to become president-for-life.

Despite such damage-control efforts, Dariga continued to be seen as a political liability for Nazarbayev, argues Satpayev, director of the Assessment Risks Group think-tank: "She was demonstrating her loyalty with all her strength, but the president decided not to take the risk."

Not everyone agrees that Nazarbayev made the decision. Her personal troubles may have prompted Nazarbayeva to withdraw from the race on her own, a commentary published by the Delovaya Nedelya newspaper suggested: "If her decision not to stand was voluntary� it can easily be put down to everyday causes � she has been hit by so many shocks in recent months that Ms. Nazarbayeva could have reviewed her priorities in life."

Speculation over Nazarbayeva’s political future eclipsed the unveiling at the Nur Otan congress of the party’s election manifesto, which pledges to raise per capita GDP from $7,000 to $13,000, double average incomes and public-sector salaries, increase pensions and state benefits, build schools, hospitals and housing, create 100,000 new jobs annually and improve rural life. The aim is to create "an economically flourishing state with firm social guarantees," Nazarbayev said. The party manifesto is based on presidential policy, he added, to some extent belying an earlier pledge that parties would exert the main influence over policy development in the newly-reformed political system.

In recent weeks there has been a rush of ministers and state officials joining Nur Otan � which is by far the country’s largest party, with some 1 million members. This, commentators suggest, is partly due to the lifting of a ban on merging state and party activities, and partly linked to a general personnel-policy shift, under which more political posts will be filled from the ranks of the majority party. Nur Otan is widely expected to dominate the upcoming election. Overall, seven parties are fielding slates of candidates for the elections, which are being held two years ahead of schedule to allow constitutional changes to take effect.

After a new parliament is seated, the president will be obliged to consult party factions before appointing a prime minister. Nazarbayev says parties will play a key role in the appointments of the premier and the cabinet. "If Kazakhstanis support us, our party [Nur Otan] will form the government, which will take the party’s election manifesto as a basis for its work," Nazarbayev said at the party congress. This verbal commitment is not enshrined in the constitutional amendments, some of which boost executive authority at the expense of the legislative branch: the president gains the right to personally appoint the key posts of foreign, defense, interior and justice ministers, for example.

Despite this, Nazarbayev insists that he is handing over some powers to parliament and creating a parliamentary-presidential republic, depicting the reform as a step towards democracy and pluralism. "Parliament is now at the forefront of the country’s political life, and government policy will largely depend on the layout of party political forces there," he told the congress.

While pro-presidential forces appeared organized and on-message, the same cannot be said for Kazakhstan’s political opposition. Various opposition leaders are already facing criticism for failing to prepare for an election widely expected to be called ahead of schedule. "Although the opposition acknowledged that there could be early parliamentary elections, not a single step was taken in preparation," political analyst Sergey Duvanov wrote in the Respublika newspaper. "They only stirred themselves from the moment the election was announced." [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Opposition leaders defend their actions by accusing authorities of unwillingness to play on a level political field. Early elections were specifically timed to hamper the opposition’s electoral prospects, the co-leader of the National Social Democratic Party (NSDP), Zharmakhan Tuyakbay, told a party congress on July 7. The electoral platform of the NSDP � which, after absorbing the Nagyz Ak Zhol party, counts 260,000 members - is based on "freedom, justice and solidarity," Tuyakbay said. It calls for an end to an economic system dominated by so-called oligarchs, increased emphasis on healthcare and education, higher pensions, rural development and regular redistribution of half of the revenue from extractive industries among all the country’s citizens.

"Just imagine a country without corruption, without hypocrisy and social egoism, without the shameless theft of national riches, without the irrepressible greed of oligarchs and bureaucratic abuse. Surely it’s not beyond the bounds of possibility to realize this dream?" Tuyakbay asked delegates.

Editor�s Note: Joanna Lillis is a freelance writer who specializes in Central Asia.

The Central Eurasia Project aims, through its website, meetings, papers, and grants, to foster a more informed debate about the social, political and economic developments of the Caucasus and Central Asia. It is a program of the Open Society Institute-New York. The Open Society Institute-New York is a private operating and grantmaking foundation that promotes the development of open societies around the world by supporting educational, social, and legal reform, and by encouraging alternative approaches to complex and controversial issues.

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