EurasiaNet Eurasia Insight - US Pressure Helps Achieve Breakthrough in Georgian Domestic Political Dispute

EURASIA INSIGHT

US PRESSURE HELPS ACHIEVE BREAKTHROUGH IN GEORGIAN DOMESTIC POLITICAL DISPUTE
Giorgi Kandelaki 7/18/03

Building domestic pressure in Georgia has eased following the acceptance by political leaders of US proposals designed to ensure fair parliamentary elections later this year. Georgia continues to be buffeted by political turbulence, however, with the recent flare-up of Russian-Georgian tension over potential American surveillance flights.

An early July visit to Tbilisi by former US secretary of state James Baker played a crucial role in resolving the confrontation between President Eduard Shevardnadze’s administration and leading opposition parties. The two sides had been stalemated over disputes involving revision of the country’s electoral code and the composition of election commissions that will oversee the November parliamentary vote. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Opposition leaders, citing the Shevardnadze administration’s low public approval rating, had voiced fears that incumbent authority would rig the vote to retain power. Baker, acting as a special US envoy, brought with him an American blueprint to reduce the chances of electoral fraud. By the end of his two-day stay, Baker � who as secretary of state worked closely with Shevardnadze, a former Soviet foreign minister, in handling the geopolitical challenges arising from Communism’s collapse in the early 1990s � secured support for the plan from major political leaders, including the Georgian president.

Among the key points of the US plan is a provision mandating the adoption of a new electoral code by August 2 and the implementation of a fixed ratio for the composition of election commissions. At each level, election commissions would comprise nine representatives of opposition parties, five from the pro-Shevardnadze For New Georgia bloc and one independent monitor appointed by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe.

In addition, the US plan seeks to make the ballot counting process as transparent as possible, calling for the computerization and on-line display of voter registration lists by September 1. The American blueprint also calls on the Georgian government to facilitate an independent monitoring of the ballot-tallying process. In connection with the plan, all political parties and movements in Georgia are to pledge to refrain from violent tactics before, during and after the parliamentary vote.

During a July 8 meeting, Shevardnadze, along with top political supporters and opponents, agreed that a new electoral code should be adopted to meet "American standards," the Prime-News agency reported. Presidential aides characterized the meeting as "very constructive."

Political observers say that in a free and fair electoral environment, opposition forces stand a good chance of winning control of parliament from Shevardnadze supporters. A fair election, along with a peaceful transition of power, would mark a rare instance of a ballot-box transition in a former Soviet republic. How such an electoral development would impact the Georgian democratization process remains open to debate, however. Giga Bokeria, a prominent human rights activist affiliated with the Liberty Institute, said a change of power in parliament would not in itself ensure Georgia’s democratic evolution.

Opposition leaders hailed the adoption of the US plan as a political victory in their struggle against Shevardnadze’s administration. Zurab Zhvania, leader of the United Democrats, said July 6 that the plan provided "proof of the United States’ very special interest in the democratic and stable development of Georgia." The National Movement’s leader, Mikhail Saakashvili, said: "Shevardnadze’s bragging that his old friends [in the US administration] would forgive him anything [such as rigging the vote] has proved to be a total bluff."

Leaders of the pro-Shevardnadze For New Georgia bloc were muted in their enthusiasm for the Baker plan, but indicated that they would go along with it. "To be honest, we are not really happy with this proposal. However, we will do our best to ensure free and transparent elections," said one of the bloc’s leaders, Vakhtang Rcheulishvili.

Speaking in a July 7 radio interview, Shevardnadze in expressing satisfaction with the election plan emphasized that his administration had established the foundation for a special relationship with the United States. Baker’s "special mission has once again confirmed the importance the current Washington administration � attach to cooperation with Georgia," Shevardnadze said.

Shevardnadze also stressed that personal diplomacy played a role in winning approval for the US plan. "Indeed, Baker’s past cooperation and friendly relations with the president of Georgia were also taken into account," Shevardnadze said.

According to a report broadcast by Rustavi-2 television July 8, Shevardnadze rebuffed an appeal made by Baker for the Georgian president to not become directly involved in parliamentary campaign politics. In reportedly declining to withdraw his backing for the For New Georgia movement, Shevardnadze told Baker that the young politicians who are prominent in the opposition "lack experience that would make it difficult for them to cope with Russian pressure."

In recent weeks, Russia has complained that Tbilisi has sanctioned plans for reconnaissance flights made over Georgian territory by US AWACS planes. Russian military leaders and diplomats feel such flights would be a hostile gesture.

"The Russian Foreign Ministry believe these plans and actions of Georgia [AWACS flights] run counter to its leadership’s declarations on improving cooperation with Russia, including in the security sphere," the Interfax news agency quoted ministry spokesman Alexander Yakovenko as saying July 10. Yakovenko noted that AWACS "can survey a significant part of Russian territory without entering its airspace."

Russian defense officials have said the flights would establish a "dangerous precedent" and pose "a threat to national security," according to a July 9 report published by the Itar-Tass news agency.

The controversy began when Georgian officials took a demonstration flight July 9 on an AWACS plane during a stop-over in Tbilisi. The same day Georgian Defense Minister Davit Tevzadze revealed on Georgian television that of "a new plan" under development for Georgia to receive air reconnaissance information through a "data exchange system." Shevardnadze downplayed the possibility of AWACS reconnaissance flights over Georgia in comments made to Itar-Tass on July 14. He denied that the United States had asked for Tbilisi’s permission to conduct such missions.

Editor�s Note: Giorgi Kandelaki is a senior at the Department of Political Science at Tbilisi State University. He is a member of the Youth Atlantic Council of Georgia.

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