Escalating clashes between the Hezbollah militia and Israeli armed forces are raising concerns about whether Iran and Syria could become embroiled in the conflict.
Iran has already put its armed services on full alert, and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's administration is working to strengthen ties with Syria. Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki delivered a diplomatic note to Syrian leaders on July 17 that expressed "Tehran's friendship and solidarity" with Damascus, the official IRNA news agency reported. On July 18, Iranian officials took steps to mobilize domestic support, staging an "anti-Zionist" rally in Tehran.
Ahmadinejad, who in late in 2005 called for Israel to be "wiped off the map," stirred fears of a direct Iranian-Israeli conflict by issuing a vitriolic warning on July 13: Tehran would consider an Israeli attack on Syria as the "equivalent to an attack on the whole Islamic world."
Despite the belligerent talk, Iran experts in the United States believe that Tehran is posturing, seeking to gain maximum geopolitical advantage while wanting to avoid a fight with Israel at least for now. The Israeli government, likewise, isn't looking to take on Tehran, political analysts say.
"Israel has no plans to engage directly with Iran," said Patrick Clawson, the deputy director for research at Washington Institute for Near East Policy, and who was an early advocate of "regime-change" in Iran. "This war is about neutralizing Hezbollah and that's what Israel intends to do. So far, Israel believes things are going quite well on that front."
Attacking Iran, especially any attempt that seeks to cripple Tehran's nuclear program, "would detract from the main objective and conflate the issue of peace in Middle East with something totally different," Clawson added.
Gary Sick, an Iran expert at Columbia University who served on the National Security Council during the Carter administration, suggested that Israel would need assistance from the United States in order to attack Iran, adding that such aid would likely not be forthcoming under existing circumstances. "I suspect the United States and Israel are not interested in a war with Iran, and those who say so are engaging in wild speculation," Sick told EurasiaNet.
"Iran would likely take an attack on itself by Israel as a joint Israel-US operation and would act accordingly." He added that with the situation in Iraq the way it is, the United States is in no position to "open a new front" in Middle East.
Another important factor restraining Israel's options is the global energy market. Sick suggested that an Israeli-Iranian clash would send oil prices to $150 a barrel. "Israel will not want to be blamed for sending the world economy into a major recession," he said.
From the Iranian point of view, Tehran stands to gain substantial geopolitical benefits from the tension in the Middle East, but only so long as Iran stays out of a "hot" war. The global shift in attention toward the situation in Lebanon buys time for Iran's nuclear program, as the United States and European Union have less time to think about the perils of nuclear proliferation as they try to solve the Hezbollah conundrum. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].
An editorial in the arch-conservative Iranian daily Kayhan suggested that whereas just weeks ago international leaders, such as EU Foreign Affairs Commissioner Javier Solana, might to try to bully Iran on the nuclear issue, officials now are more solicitous of Iranian officials, seeing Tehran's influence with Hezbollah as potentially vital for the success of efforts to restore political equilibrium in the region.
Iranian officials believe that the longer they can drag out the nuclear issue, the less pressure Washington will be able to exert on Tehran. Underpinning this belief is the expectation that the United States will become increasingly preoccupied with domestic issues as the November congressional elections approach.
Iran has yet to formally respond to an incentive package offered by members of the United Nation's Security Council plus Germany. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. On July 18, the head of the Iranian parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, Alaeddin Boroujerdi, indicated that Iran would consider withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty if the Security Council took steps toward the adoption of a resolution designed to force Iran to suspend uranium enrichment, IRNA reported.
Editor's note:
Kamal Nazer Yasin is a pseudonym for a freelance journalist specializing in Iranian affairs.
