EurasiaNet Eurasia Insight - Analysts: International Attention Scant for Georgia’s Peacekeeper Woes

EURASIA INSIGHT

ANALYSTS: INTERNATIONAL ATTENTION SCANT FOR GEORGIA’S PEACEKEEPER WOES
Molly Corso 7/18/06

For the second time in six months, the Georgian parliament on July 18 voted to end Russian peacekeepers’ mandate in the breakaway territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Political analysts, however, question how much of an impact the parliamentary resolution will have on the regional peace process.

Terming the resolution "historic," Parliament Speaker Nino Burjanadze called on Georgia’s government to act on it as soon as possible. "We should already start this process and finish it quickly," she told parliament on July 17. "We see that the peacekeepers are not doing anything there; quite the opposite - we see that they are an obstacle to ending the conflict."

The resolution calls on Georgia’s executive branch to take the steps to end Russia’s "so-called" peacekeeping operations in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, saying that the performance of Russian troops in the territories is part of "a permanent attempt to annex Georgia’s territory." [For a translation of the resolution click here.]

Although the resolution easily passed parliament, not all deputies are convinced that the decision will be productive. David Gamkrelidze, leader of the New Rights opposition party, stated that members of the opposition who are boycotting parliament did not see any reason to participate in the vote since the government has not yet acted on an earlier resolution, passed in February. [For background see the EurasiaNet Insight archive.]

Deputy Foreign Minister Giorgi Manjgaladze characterized parliament’s July 18 vote as "an expression of our frustration with the ongoing processes there and a demonstration of our … unwillingness to tolerate anymore … this status quo of frozen conflict."

Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili and Russian President Vladimir Putin plan to meet on July 20-21 during a summit of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) in Moscow. Saakashvili has stated that a final decision about Russian peacekeeping forces will be made during that meeting. In a televised speech on July 18, the Georgian leader stressed that Tbilisi has run out of patience. "We have peaceful intentions, but, at the same time, we will not allow the [conflicts] to freeze and [will not allow] deterioration of the situation in the conflict zone," he said.

Some political analysts, however, anticipate that parliament’s vote will merely exacerbate tensions between Tbilisi and the de facto leadership of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

In remarks to the Abkhaz news agency Apsnipress, as reported by Civil.ge, de facto Abkhaz Foreign Minister Sergei Shamba stated that a final decision on peacekeepers in Abkhazia should be made by leaders of the CIS member-states. Withdrawing the peacekeepers otherwise could lead to a breakdown in talks with Georgia, he noted. In a statement released by the South Ossetian Press and Information Committee, South Ossetian de facto President Eduard Kokoity sounded a similar note, claiming that Georgia "plans to impose on us a forceful scenario of conflict resolution."

Tea Kentchadze, a project manager and researcher at the Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies in Tbilisi, believes the political conditions are not right for the Georgian government to challenge the peacekeepers’ mandate. Without international support, or a clear plan for an international peacekeeping force, she argued, parliament can do little to advance matters in the conflict zones.

"They have been trying to more explicitly state their interests than before and [are] stating things as they are. However, while recognizing the correctness of those claims, we still . . . have to work within the context that is established right now," she said. "I just don’t think the context is helpful for Georgia to make some substantial changes to the peacekeeping operation."

Manjgaladze, Georgia’s deputy foreign minister, insisted that the parliamentary resolutions are not intended to exclude Russia from the conflict-resolution processes in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. "We do not lose the hope that maybe some sort of this common work [with the international community] and unified engagement will help possibly to resolve the conflicts," Manjgaladze said.

Global geopolitical conditions do not favor a fast resolution of the Abkhazia and South Ossetia questions. Not only is the international community fixated on the brewing crisis in the Middle East, but over the longer term, challenges, namely the nuclear ambitions of North Korea and Iran, seem assured of commanding global attention. While government officials express confidence that Georgia’s territorial conflicts gained notice at the July 15-17 G8 summit of the world’s leading industrial powers in St. Petersburg, some political analysts question how much of an impact the gathering will have on affairs in either conflict zone.

"My sense is that the question of what is happening in the CIS, and what Russia is doing or not doing in the resolution of the frozen conflicts, was not on the top of the agenda for obvious reasons," Johannes Linn, director of the Wilson Center at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C., said in a telephone interview. "[Russian] President [Vladimir] Putin did not want it to be on the agenda and others were not interested enough. It never had a chance."

No concrete proposal or decision regarding South Ossetia or Abkhazia emerged from the G8 summit, although the participants engaged in a general discussion about the frozen conflicts, according to British Prime Minister Tony Blair. "President Putin simply explained the situation and the difficulties of the relationship, particularly with certain groups that are operating in and around Georgia . . . this really formed part of a discussion about how we produce stability in this region," Blair told a July 17 news conference in St. Petersburg.

Manjgaladze believes that the mere mention of Georgia during the summit was a major victory for Tbilisi. "This was the first time that Georgia and some issues connected with Georgia were part of the [G8] agenda," he said. "The awareness about the conflict, its roots and the ongoing processes there - and the identities of [the] sides of the conflicts - is not as well known as we want."

In a televised speech July 16, Saakashvili called the G8 summit "historic" for the country, a chance to capitalize on the attention being paid to Georgia for its reform process. "For the first time in its history, Georgia has unprecedented levels of support and recognition in international public opinion," he said.

Editor’s Note: Molly Corso is a freelance reporter and photographer based in Tbilisi.

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