Dale Watson, head of counterterrorism for the United States' Federal Bureau of Investigation, hazarded a guess on July 17 that Osama Bin Laden had died in Afghanistan but told reporters that the US "will be attacked again." Similarly, politicians and generals in Central Asia are looking through American-led advances in Afghanistan for signs that extremist groups are preparing to mount fresh attacks. In particular, officials are speculating that the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, a violent group with links to bin Laden's al Qaida network, has swollen to as many as 2,000 members. And Central Asian states' military ability to respond to such a force depends heavily on Russian decisions and capacity.
Four days after Watson's remarks, Kyrgyz Security Council Secretary Misir Ashirkulov told reporters that Juma Namangani, the IMU's leader, was probably alive despite official reports of his burial in late 2001. Ashirkulov's colleague, Defense Minister Esen Topoyev has expressed that Tajik and Kyrgyz military forces can repel any terrorist incursion made from Afghanistan. A blueprint for such an effort has emerged. Kyrgyzstan would first involve its 5,000 Border Troops, who include Kyrgyz conscripts and Russian officers. If fighting intensified, the Commonwealth of Independent States' Collective Rapid Deployment Forces would join the fighting. Since the IMU launched attacks on Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan in 1999 and 2000, Kyrgyz officials have emphasized development of a
Editor's note:
Roger N. McDermott is a Political Consultant at the Scottish Center for International Security of the University of Aberdeen.
