Eurasia Insight:
TURKISH EXPERTS PESSIMISTIC ON PROSPECTS FOR RESTORATION OF US-TURKISH RELATIONSHIP
Igor Torbakov: 7/22/03

Turkish Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul begins a visit to the United States on July 22, seeking to reinvigorate a troubled strategic partnership. Political analysts in Turkey are pessimistic about the trip’s prospects, some going so far as to pronounce the long-standing US-Turkish alliance as "dead." The souring of relations has prompted a vigorous debate in Turkey on the country’s strategic priorities.

While in Washington, Gul is scheduled to meet with top Bush administration officials, including Vice President Dick Cheney, Secretary of State Colin Powell and National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice. Gul’s main aim is to restore the sense of friendship that was damaged by the Turkish parliament’s decision not to make bases available to US troops on the eve of the Iraq invasion. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archives].

Relations were further strained by the July 4 "Suleimania Incident," in which Turkish officers were detained by the US military. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive]. A joint US-Turkish statement issued concerning the episode showed, in the words of Turkish Daily News Editor-in-Chief Ilnur Cevik: "the sides agreed to disagree" on responsibility for the arrests. The United States expressed regret for the incident, but has issued no apology.

Among the specific issues on the agenda during Gul’s round of Washington visits is the possible deployment of Turkish troops in Iraq in the capacity of peacekeepers. Gul cautioned in a July 21 interview with the Anatolia news agency that no decision is expected in the near future. "The issue continues to be taken up in unofficial consultations right now. … This issue has not yet been taken up on the governmental level," Gul said. "If there are more concrete proposals, they will be evaluated."

Shortly before Gul’s trip to the United States, two top US generals – Supreme Allied Commander Gen. James L. Jones and US Central Command chief Gen. John Abizaid – held talks in Ankara with Turkish political and military leaders. The generals discussed issues related to Turkish troop deployment in Iraq. They also reportedly sought to assuage Turkish concerns about the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) presence in northern Iraq.

The visits of the US generals did little to boost confidence among many Turkish observers that bilateral relations could be quickly repaired. "The two countries appear to have managed only to defer the crisis," says political analyst Mete Belovacikli in a commentary published by the Turkish Daily News. Sami Kohen, a political analysts for the mass circulation Milliyet was far more grim in his assessment: "the strategic partnership with the United States may well be dead by now."

Some Turkish observers asserted that the crisis in relations had been brewing for many years. "Turkey and the United States have not been seeing eye to eye on Iraq for the past decade simply because they have different strategic and regional interests," said Cevik, the Turkish Daily News editor. "Turkey wanted to see Saddam Hussein’s dictatorial regime remain intact simply to preserve the national unity of Iraq and thus prevent Kurdish secessionism."

US-Turkish differences extend beyond Iraq, however. In general, Ankara is wary of the Bush administration’s willingness to embrace "regime change" as a specific policy goal. There is particular concern among Turkish officials about the Bush administration’s desire to remake the Middle East’s political landscape.

Many in Turkish political circles perceive the Bush administration to be arrogant and insensitive to Turkey’s fundamental national interests. "Who needs enemies if you have friends like these?" Yuksel Soylemez, a veteran political commentator, recently remarked.

Concerning Middle East-related issues, Ankara under present circumstances would prefer to keep the American role to a minimum. "Turkey and Iran are countries in the region which have more experience [here] than the United States. The two countries can [themselves] find solutions to improve the region’s worsening conditions," said Kivanc Galip Over, the editor of the Diplomaticobserver.com website.

While political analysts may agree that the strategic relationship between Turkey and the United States may never be the same, opinions differ as to what, if anything, Turkey should do to compensate for the loss of American support. Some analysts, such a Soylemez, suggest Turkey is capable of defending its geopolitical interests without the need of a strategic partner.

Other analysts say the decline of the US-Turkish relationship should spur Ankara’s efforts to join the European Union. "To balance out the pressure that the United States [currently] exerts on us, we need the European Union," Ismet Berkan, a columnist for the Radikal daily, wrote recently.

Meanwhile, a few experts contend that Turkey’s most viable strategic option is to reinvent itself as a Eurasian power, developing its leadership role among the Turkic states of Central Asian and Caucasus states. "The narrowing Balkan area and a Middle East that has closed its doors to Turkey, are directing Turkey towards Eurasia," said Mehmet Seyfettin Erol, an analyst at the Eurasian Strategic Research Center.

The discussion about new directions for Ankara’s foreign policy is alarming to some members of Turkey’s political elite. Veteran Turkish politician Kamuran Inan, for example, says recent developments have exposed Turkey’s "strategic solitude." In reality, Inan says in an interview with the Turkish Daily news, "Turkey is experiencing now the biggest isolation in its entire history."

Editor’s Note: Igor Torbakov is a freelance journalist and researcher who specializes in CIS political affairs. He holds an MA in History from Moscow State University and a PhD from the Ukrainian Academy of Sciences. He was Research Scholar at the Institute of Russian History, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow; a Visiting Scholar at the Kennan Institute, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, Washington DC; a Fulbright Scholar at Columbia University, New York; and a Visiting Fellow at Harvard University. He is now based in Istanbul, Turkey.