EurasiaNet Eurasia Insight - Azerbaijan Prepares for Political Transition as President Aliyev's Condition Reportedly Deteriorates

EURASIA INSIGHT

AZERBAIJAN PREPARES FOR POLITICAL TRANSITION AS PRESIDENT ALIYEV’S CONDITION REPORTEDLY DETERIORATES
7/23/03

President Heidar Aliyev’s health has reportedly experienced a serious decline in recent days, prompting renewed concern about Azerbaijan’s political future. Various foreign and domestic opposition-oriented media outlets claim that the Azerbaijani leader is near death � reports that government officials have denied. At the same time, amid the speculation on Aliyev’s health status, incumbent authorities appear to be putting a succession plan into place.

Aliyev has not been seen publicly or heard from for two weeks. He has been undergoing treatment at a military hospital in the Turkish capital of Ankara since July 8. Azerbaijani officials have claimed that Aliyev is preparing for his return to Baku, describing the president’s condition as "normal," the Russian web site Izvestiya Info reported July 23.

Other media reports, however, assert that heart and lung ailments have left Aliyev near death. One opposition daily in Baku, Yeni Musavat, reported July 20 that Aliyev had slipped into a coma. In a July 22 article, Hurriyyat, another opposition newspaper, suggested that "it would be a miracle if he [Aliyev] returns to Azerbaijan alive." Meanwhile, the Turan news agency, citing a Turkish television station report, said the cost of Aliyev’s medical treatment approached $34 million per month, a claim that Azerbaijani officials deny.

Opposition reports on Aliyev’s health have proven wrong in the past, particularly in the days and weeks following Aliyev’s collapse while making a speech in April. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Still, Aliyev’s political supporters are preparing to contest the presidential election, now scheduled for October 15, without the incumbent at the top of the ticket. According to a July 22 report in Hurriyyat, members of Aliyev’s inner circle � including the president’s son, Ilham, the elder Aliyev’s brother, Calal, and presidential chief of staff Ramiz Mehdiyev � gathered at a dacha outside Baku to formulate an "action plan in the event of the president’s death."

In early July, the governing New Azerbaijan Party formally nominated two presidential candidates � the president and his son, Ilham. Opposition media sources say that top administration officials have concluded that the elder Aliyev’s candidacy is no longer viable. Influential administration officials have thus decided to throw the weight of Azerbaijan’s bureaucratic machine behind Ilham in order to ensure his election.

Top administration officials have already been mobilized to promote Ilham’s candidacy in Azerbaijan’s provinces. For example, a delegation led by presidential staff member Rahim Agayev held talks with regional officials in Sabirabad Province on July 17, the Millat daily reported. The administration representatives "advised the participants at the meeting to take urgent measures aimed at supporting Aliyev junior," the report said.

Yeni Musavat asserted July 21 that top government officials have been assigned specific areas where they will be responsible for getting out the vote for Ilham. The newspaper claimed, for example, that state oil company boss Natiq Aliyev will be responsible for the vote in the Nakhichevan exclave and Deputy Prime Minister Abbas Abbasov will be responsible for the vote in Ganja, Azerbaijan’s second largest city.

A political transition looms in Azerbaijan at a time when the country is the scene of jockeying between the United States and Russia � a struggle connected with the development of Caspian Basin energy reserves. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archives]. Political analysts believe a leadership transition could have a considerable impact on the geopolitical chess match in Azerbaijan. Foreign policies could shift to reflect the Aliyev administration’s top priority � staying in power.

In recent years, Aliyev has strengthened ties with the United States while at the same time managing to maintain a relatively friendly relationship with Moscow. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archives].

Aliyev’s latest health woes forced the postponement of a visit to Baku by Russian President Vladimir Putin. That trip had been scheduled to begin on July 22. Political observers say Aliyev, in his dealings with the United States and Russia, has sought to keep his options open. While the US support may be viewed in Baku as critical for the construction of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, Aliyev has been keen to retain Russia’s favor. According to a July 18 report by Vremya Novostei, a Russian newspaper, "Baku wants to gain Russia’s support � in case Washington expresses disapproval of the transfer of power within the �family.’" [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive].

By all appearances, the governing party is determined to maintain power at all costs. Already, international observers have criticized the Azerbaijani government for its handling of the election campaign.

Azerbaijan’s Central Election Commission (CEC) has made several controversial decisions, rejecting the presidential candidacies of several high-profile political figures, including former parliament speaker Rasul Guliyev and former president Ayaz Mutalibov. In addition, opposition leaders have complained in recent weeks about government harassment. In perhaps the most notorious incident, traffic police stopped a three-car motorcade carrying Musavat Party leader and presidential candidate Isa Gambar on July 14. Three Gambar aides were taken into custody for alleged traffic violations and sentenced to administrative detention. They were released July 19.

The US government, along with the Council of Europe and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, has expressed concern about Azerbaijan’s pre-election environment. "We [the US government] are troubled by recent events, such as the denial of candidates’ registrations and the arrests of individuals associated with certain candidates. Both seem to be driven by a desire to harass opposition candidates," State Department spokeswoman Joanne Prokopowicz said.

In an interview with the Baku daily Ekho, Peter Burkhard, head of the OSCE’s office in Baku, chastised the election commission, saying its actions indicated that it was not committed to holding a free and fair election. "We have been watching the CEC operating for six months," Burkhard said. "I see no positive signs in the activities of this body."

Editor�s Note: Mevlut Katik, a Turkey-based EurasiaNet contributor, provided information for this report.

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