Afghan President Karzai May Rue Dumping Fahim – Presidential Rival

Afghan President Hamid Karzai may come to rue the day he dumped Gen. Mohammad Fahim as one of his vice presidents, warned one of the incumbent's leading challengers in the upcoming presidential election. Yunus Qanooni, who, like Fahim, is an ethnic Tajik, told EurasiaNet that Karzai lacks the ability to rein in the country's warlords.

Qanooni, a former education minister, declared his presidential candidacy July 26, the same day that Karzai announced that he was replacing Fahim with Ahmad Zia Masood, brother of the legendary Afghan resistance hero Ahmad Shah Masood, on his election ticket. [See related EurasiaNet story]. Many observers saw a direct correlation between Qanooni's candidacy and Fahim's ouster.

Up until his 11th hour announcement, Qanooni had been a backer of Karzai in the election scheduled for October 9. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Qanooni's candidacy appears to be an attempt by Tajik political leaders from the so-called Northern Alliance, which provided the main opposition to the Taliban during the Islamic radical movement's years in power, to preserve their influence in Afghanistan's new political order.

In an interview with EurasiaNet the day before he declared himself a presidential contender, Qanooni indicated that Fahim, who also has served as Afghanistan's defense minister, deserved to be criticized for the failings of a UN-funded program to disarm Afghan militia soldiers and retrain them for civilian life. At the same time, Qanooni stressed that Fahim – given his defense portfolio and his influence as a former top Northern Alliance commander – is the most capable member of Karzai's administration in dealing with Afghanistan's warlords, who largely control the country outside of the capital, Kabul.

"Fahim is the only one who can guarantee the nation's security and stability," Qanooni said. "I believe that if Karzai loses Fahim's support, he will have a hard time winning the election."

Qanooni claimed that Karzai, who is backed by the international community, does not have a strong power base within the country. He noted that Karzai is an ethnic Pashtun, adding that voter-registration efforts in Pashtun areas of Afghanistan have encountered problems. Chief among those difficulties is the ongoing armed action by Taliban loyalists that aims to disrupt the presidential poll. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. At the same time, Qanooni maintained, Afghanistan's Tajik community is cohesive and prepared to vote in a way that best defends its interests. "The organized community is our [Tajik] community," Qanooni said.

Karzai's dismissal of Fahim is exacerbating inter-ethnic tension, Qanooni suggested. "Ethnicity is again becoming a prominent factor" in Afghan politics, he said. "This is not good for stability." Lending credence to Qanooni's contention was the fact that Kabul was on high security alert on July 27, as rumors circulated in the capital that armed forces loyal to Fahim might stage an uprising.

Despite Qanooni's entry into the presidential race, some political observers in Kabul believe Karzai will win the election victory because of the opposition's inability to field a unified candidate. However, Qanooni expressed confidence that the Tajik community could determine the election's outcome. The fact that Fahim's replacement, Ahmad Zia Masood, is also Tajik will not be sufficient to split the Tajik vote, Qanooni claimed.

According to another prominent Tajik political leader, Foreign Minster Dr. Abdullah Abdullah, Zia Masood was Karzai's third choice to fill the vice presidential post. Abdullah claimed that both he and Qanooni declined an offer by Karzai to fill the election-ticket vacancy. Abdullah also said Qanooni's candidacy was a collective decision made by Tajik leaders. "I am supporting Yunus Qanooni in the upcoming election," Abdullah said.

Another official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Tajik political elders attempted to convince Zia Masood not to accept Karzai's offer. Among those trying to dissuade Zia Masood was another brother, Ahmad Vali Masood, the source indicated. "When many Qanooni supporters gathered at a mosque (July 26) and prayed for his success, Ahmad Zia Masood promised not to accept the vice presidency. But he shocked us by arriving at the [presidential] palace and ignoring his friends and family," the source said.

"We are continuing negotiations with Ahmad Zia Masood not to break his ties with old friends and resign," the source added.

Experts in Kabul say Zia Masood is heavily influenced by Burhanuddin Rabbani, who served as Afghanistan's de facto president prior to the rise of the Taliban, and who is also the vice presidential candidate's father-in-law. Rabbani reportedly urged Karzai to replace Fahim with Zia Masood.

Karzai, speaking at a news conference, said one motivation for shaking up the election ticket was a desire to inject an element of youth in his administration. "We just wanted to benefit the younger generation. I chose Ahmad Zia Masood because he belongs to a well-known family and he is young," Karzai said.