Rumsfeld’s Visit May Only Temporarily Relieve Pressure on US Forces in Central Asia to Leave

The leaders of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan told US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld what he wanted to hear during his recent Central Asian tour – that the American military can maintain its existing presence in the region. Yet, after Rumsfeld's departure, regional leaders resumed extolling the benefits of strategic cooperation with Russia, signaling that the defense secretary's visit may have succeeded only in temporarily relieving the pressure on US forces to leave Central Asia.

During his July 25-26 visit to Central Asia, Rumsfeld secured assurances from Kyrgyz President-elect Kurmanbek Bakiyev and his Tajik counterpart Imomali Rahmonov that the US military is welcome as long as necessary. Most importantly, Bakiyev and other Kyrgyz officials endorsed the continued use by American forces of an air base outside Bishkek. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Earlier in July, both Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan had backed a resolution adopted by the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), a regional political and economic grouping dominated by Russia and China, that called on the United States to set a withdrawal date for its forces in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

The SCO resolution claimed the improving social and political climate in Afghanistan meant that the United States no longer needed to maintain support bases in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. Rumsfeld during his stops in Bishkek and Dushanbe refuted the notion that Afghanistan's reconstruction efforts had progressed to the point where a strong US military presence was unnecessary. The defense secretary described the US air base in Kyrgyzstan as vital for the support of ongoing US military operations to contain Islamic militants in Afghanistan.

Rumsfeld proclaimed US ties with Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan to be in sound shape. For example, during a joint news conference in the Tajik capital Dushanbe, he characterized the United States and Tajikistan as "solid partners in the global struggle against extremism."

While Kyrgyz and Tajik leaders may see value in maintaining strategic cooperation with the United States, there are many signs suggesting that officials in both countries now see Russia as their primary security partner.

On July 26, shortly after Rumsfeld had departed Bishkek, the Russian news agency Itar-Tass published an interview with Bakiyev, in which the president-elect said that Moscow has "always held and will hold a special place in Kyrgyzstan's foreign policy." The Kyrgyz leader indicated that Kyrgyzstan would boost strategic cooperation in the future.

"We think Russia's presence in the Central Asian region is, first of all, a safeguard of stability and security," Bakiyev continued. "International terrorism, religious extremism, illegal trade in drugs and arms, organized crime and various kinds of violence – all this requires ever closer cooperation and joint actions based on complete trust."

Meanwhile, Tajikistan has significantly strengthened its strategic and economic relations with Russia over the past year. Ties binding Dushanbe and Moscow are currently far stronger than those between the United States and Tajikistan.

During an October 2004 visit to Tajikistan by Russian President Vladimir Putin, Moscow agreed to forgive $350 million in debt in exchange for control of a satellite surveillance complex in Nurek. Russian and Tajik officials also concluded several deals, in which Russian companies pledged to invest hundreds of millions of dollars in Tajik infrastructure and industrial projects. In addition, Dushanbe agreed to grant Russia a permanent military base on Tajik territory. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Russia has largely been silent about Rumsfeld's Central Asian trip. Some Russian media outlets claimed the United States extended $200 million in financial assistance in order to secure continued access to the Kyrgyz air base at Manas. But Kyrgyz officials denied the reports. Political observers expect that Moscow will continue to use regional multilateral organizations, including the SCO and the Collective Security Treaty Organization, to undermine the American geopolitical position in Central Asia.